Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD enjoys the quiet before the storm

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,802

Financial markets keep their eyes on the Middle East developments.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran extends until April 22.
XAU/USD meets sellers on spikes beyond $4,800, but remains neutral in the near-term.

Financial markets are in cautious mode at the beginning of the new week, with investors wondering what will happen next. Spot Gold traded as low $4,737 before bouncing, now battling to retain the $4,800 mark.

The focus remains on the Middle East and whether Iran and the United States (US) will put an end to the conflict that is pushing global economies to the brink.

Optimism surged on Friday after Tehran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but as it has been usual lately, weekend developments sent it all down the drain: The Strait was re-closed by Iran, while the US attacked an Iranian tanker heading to China and took control of it.

Representatives from both countries were meant to sit at the negotiation table in Islamabad, Pakistan. The US says talks will take place on Monday, while Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Galibaf will lead Iran's delegation to Pakistan on Tuesday. Weekend tensions led to US Dollar (USD) gains at the beginning of the week, with the American currency gaping higher across the FX board.

The Greenback turned lower as the day went by, but uncertainty prevails. Despite the ongoing skirmishes, a ceasefire is in place until April 22. Washington and Tehran have until Wednesday, then, to clinch a deal.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the four-hour chart shows that XAU/USD is neutral. Price holds just above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,792.79, while slipping marginally under the 20-period SMA at $4,807.91, leaving the metal in a broadly neutral but slightly capped near-term stance. The 100-period SMA at $4,706.51 remains well below spot and reinforces the underlying medium-term uptrend, yet the flat Momentum (14) near negative territory and a Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around the 51 mark hint at indecisive, range-bound conditions rather than a strong directional push.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,663, $4,721, and $4,223, respectively, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact despite the recent pullback from record highs. The Momentum indicator has turned positive again, while the RSI indicator hovers near 52, hinting at steady underlying demand-

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier around $4,890, where fresh supply could emerge if the bounce extends, exposing the $4,900 mark. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA near $4,721, followed by the 20-day SMA around $4,663, with the 200-day SMA much lower, near $4,223, acting as a major structural floor if selling pressure accelerates.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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