Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits next catalyst around $4,600

XAU/USD Current price: $4,604

• United States encouraging macroeconomic data fail to support the US Dollar.
• Financial markets are all about sentiment, tech sector lifts Wall Street.
• XAU/USD consolidates around the $4,600 level, with buyers surging on dips.

Spot Gold consolidates recent gains, trading comfortably around $4,610 a troy ounce. The XAU/USD pair keeps finding buyers on dips towards the $4,580 price zone, as the US Dollar (USD) remains unattractive.

Sentiment improved after Wall Street’s opening, and the United States (US) indexes seem to have left behind their poor performance of the last few days, with the tech sector rebounding and leading gains. The better mood caps the bright metal, which, anyway, holds near fresh record highs.

Other than that, the latest round of US macroeconomic data was encouraging, although not enough to bring speculative interest back to life. The country reported that Initial Jobless Claims eased to198K in the week ended January 10, improving from the 207K previous. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey printed at 12.6 in January following a revised -8.8 in December.

Friday will bring little of interest in terms of macroeconomic releases, with the focus on US political noise and President Donald Trump's inside and outside battles.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trades around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,610, which partially lost its bullish strength. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain a bullish bias as price holds above the gauges. Initial support emerges at the 100 SMA at $4,476.27. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator aims lower around its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator eases at around 55, reflecting the lack of buying interest rather than supporting a downward extension.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD paused, but did not give up. Technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions, but lack downward strength. At the same time, the pair develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising above the 100- and 200-day measures, and all three slope higher, underscoring a firm bullish bias. Critical dynamic support aligns at the 20-day SMA at $4,452.69, with additional layers at the 100-day at $4,069.11 and the 200-day at $3,698.49.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)