Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims to recover ahead of US CPI data

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,134.50

The September US Consumer Price Index will be released on Friday.
The absence of a clear catalyst maintains investors sidelined.
XAU/USD holds on to modest intraday gains aims to extend its recovery.

The XAU/USD pair trades with a better tone on Thursday, holding on to intraday gains in the $4,140 region. The US Dollar (USD) came under modest selling pressure after Wall Street’s opening, despite the better tone of American indexes, all trading in the green at the time of writing.

The bright metal has been unable to find a certain directional way for a second consecutive day, as financial markets lack a clear catalyst, given the absence of relevant data or monetary policy hints.

The United States (US) offered some minor figures: Existing Home Sales were up 1.5% in September, improving from the previous 0.2%. Additionally, the October Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index also improved from the previous 4 to 15.

Things could turn a bit more interesting on Friday, as the US will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is expected to have risen by 3.1% on a yearly basis, higher than the previous 2.9%. The monthly increase is foreseen at 0.4%. The core annual reading is forecast to match the August reading at 3.1%. Other than that, the University of Michigan will unveil the final reading of the October Consumer Sentiment Index, while S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the October Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that the pair may extend its latest recovery. After bouncing from a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Wednesday, the pair managed to remain above it. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have stabilized well above their midlines after correcting extreme overbought conditions.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair managed to extend its recovery above a bullish 100 SMA, while it remains below a bearish 20 SMA, the latter acting as resistance at around $4,173. At the same time, the Momentum indicator advances within negative levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 47.

Support levels: 4,115.75 4,000.00 3,986.45

Resistance levels: 4,061.20 4,085.70 4,110.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD hits eight-month lows below 0.6850 amid bullish USD

AUD/USD stays defensive below 0.6850, hitting an eight-month low in the Asian session on Thursday as the possibility of a steeper Fed rate hike in December helps the US Dollar hold near its highest level since April 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty also supports the safe-haven buck, while the RBA’s cautious, on-hold stance limits the Aussie.

USD/JPY eases from near 160.00 amid looming intervention risks, BoJ hike bets

USD/JPY retreats slightly from an over two-month high as the recent surge back to the 160.00 psychological mark prompted verbal warnings from Japanese authorities and sparked fears of direct FX intervention. Moreover, data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation picked up again in October, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike in December and lifting the Japanese Yen. However, a bullish US Dollar, bolstered by odds of a jumbo Fed rate hike in December, could cap the pair's downside.

Gold hits fresh one-week low, eyes $3,950 amid sustained USD buying and Fed hike bets

Gold extends its descending trend for the third straight day, sliding back to $3,950, or its lowest level in more than a week. The US Dollar buying remains unabated amid firming Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, bolstered by hot US consumer inflation figures. Adding to this, Middle East uncertainties further underpin the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the commodity.

MSCI drops Strategy from indexes: What it means for Bitcoin

Strategy and Bitcoin (BTC) came under fresh pressure late Wednesday after MSCI finalized its decision to remove the Bitcoin treasury company from its global indexes, raising concerns about potential selling pressure on MSTR shares and its future Bitcoin purchases.

Why the US Dollar's rally isn't as strong as it looks

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is back at an 18-month high, but most of its climb since August is the Euro falling. Against a wider group of trading partners, the Dollar has gained half as much, and the Federal Reserve has raised rates once this year. The US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar against six other currencies, is trading near 103.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.