Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims for $3,700 ahead of Fed’s monetary policy decision

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $3,682.60

Easing United States government bond yields underpin the bright metal.
The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
XAU/USD aims to extend gains in the near term, aims for the $3,700 threshold.

Spot Gold trades near fresh all-time highs just above the $3,680 mark, approaching its all-time high of $3,674.63 posted earlier this month. Absent demand for the US Dollar (USD) prompted the bright metal higher at the beginning of the new week, as market players gear up for central banks’ monetary policy announcements.

Of course, the main focus is the Federal Reserve (Fed) schedule to announce its decision on Wednesday. The Fed is largely anticipated to deliver its first interest rate cut for 2025, with financial markets anticipating a 25 basis points (bps) reduction. The odds for a larger cut decreased following the release of sticky United States (US) inflation data, but some market participants still believe it’s possible.

The central banks of Canada, England, and Japan will also announce their decisions on monetary policy in the upcoming days, while Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) will release fresh inflation data. Other than that, the US will publish August Retail Sales on Tuesday, while Australia will unveil the August employment report on Thursday.

Softer US Treasury yields add to Gold’s advance, with the 10-year note currently offering 4.03%, down from an intraday peak of 4.089%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it retains most of its intraday gains, with more advances in the docket, despite overbought conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at around 80, while the Momentum indicator approaches overbought territory, without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, Gold is rallying far above bullish moving averages, in line with the dominant upward trend. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently stands at $3,497.

In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is set to extend its advance. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, approaching overbought readings but still with room to go. Meanwhile, a flat 20 SMA provides intraday support at around $3,642, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly north, far below the shorter one.

Support levels: 3,674.30 3,657.30 3,642.00

Resistance levels: 3,690.00 3,705.00 3,720.00

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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