Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD advances beyond $2,900, bulls gearing up

XAU/USD Current price: $2916.67

• US President Donald Trump lifts tariffs on Canadian steel and platinum.
• The United States will release fresh Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD pressures the upper end of its range, aims to regain its bullish pose.

Gold trades with a positive tone on Tuesday, pressuring the upper end of its recent range, as the US Dollar (USD) remains vulnerable due to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump embarked on a trade war in the first days of his mandate, spurring concerns about a potential US economic slowdown. Since then, Trump kept escalating tensions, announcing that he instructed Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to add an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium coming from Canada, pushing the total levy to 50%. He added such tariffs will go into effect on Wednesday.

The decision came after Canada imposed a 25% tax on electricity exported to the US. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said if there is a recession, “there’s one person to be blamed,” adding he will not hesitate to shut off electricity exports to the US if the trade war continues.

Other than that, the US published the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that job openings totalled 7.74 million at the end of January. The reading was above expectations of 7.63 million but below the 7.508 million posted in December.

The focus will remain on the US, as the country will release the February Consumer Price Index (PCI) on Wednesday. Market participants anticipate a 0.3% monthly increase, below the 0.5% posted in January. Annual inflation is expected at 2.9%, while the core annual reading is foreseen at 3.2%, down from the previous 3.3%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair suggests buyers are regaining confidence, although additional advances are not yet confirmed. Technical indicators turned marginally higher, but lack strength, while the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 level. At the same time, the pair is battling a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level. The overall picture favors another leg higher, although additional technical confirmation is still needed.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is pretty much neutral. The pair is pivoting above, converging and directionless 20 and 100 SMAs, while the 200 SMA advances below the shorter ones. At the same time, technical indicators have lost their directional strength and turned marginally lower within neutral levels, not enough to anticipate an upcoming slide.

Support levels:2,906.70 2,893.35 2,881.80

Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10