Gold Price Forecast: Investors defend the $1,900 threshold ahead of critical first-tier events
XAU/USD Current price: $1,923.58
- Major central banks and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report taking center stage this week.
- US Dollar finding strength in upbeat United States macroeconomic data.
- XAU/USD is range bound in the near term but holding near a recent multi-month high.
Spot gold trades uneventfully for a second consecutive day, hovering around $1,923 a troy ounce. The Greenback started the week with a positive tone, although gains were modest ahead of the multiple first-tier events scheduled for later this week. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their decisions on monetary policy between Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, the United States will publish the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Ahead of the events, the US Dollar found mild strength in upbeat macroeconomic figures released last week, generally indicating resilient economic progress.
US employment figures could have a limited impact on the US Dollar price, but central banks’ announcements would not pass unnoticed. On the one hand, the United States economy grew at a faster-than-anticipated rate, opening the door for the Fed to further slow the pace of tightening. At the time being, market players are betting on a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike. On the other, inflation in the Euro Zone remains near record highs, while growth-related figures disappointed, which means the central bank will likely pull the trigger with a 50 bps increase. Finally, the BoE is expected to hike its benchmark rate by 50 bps.
Whether central banks go ahead as expected or surprise market players with different decisions, action across the FX board is granted. Heading into the aforementioned events, XAU/USD is holding near a multi-month high of $1,949.09.
XAU/USD price short-term technical outlook
The near-term soft tone falls short of anticipating a steeper decline. In the daily chart, technical indicators ease but remain well above their midlines, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) barely correcting overbought conditions. At the same time, the bright metal develops well above a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which heads north far above the longer ones. Finally, the same chart shows that buyers are defending the downside in the $1,910 price zone.
The 4-hour chart offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair is meeting near-term sellers around a flat 20 SMA, although the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firmly bullish slopes below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, although lacking directional strength.
Support levels: 1,910.00 1,896.50 1,884.30
Resistance levels: 1,935.10 1,950.00 1,966.15
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Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
