Gold Price Forecast: Has the tide turned against XAU/USD bears?

• Gold price is contemplating the next leg higher after Monday’s staggering rally.
• The US dollar remains vulnerable amid risk flows and weaker Treasury yields.
• XAU/USD could see more gains as the critical 21 DMA is reclaimed and RSI flips bullish.

Gold price is treading water near two-week highs above $1,703, awaiting a fresh catalyst to kickstart another upswing following a fantastic start to the week. The US dollar is licking its wounds, looking to resume the previous week’s correction. The market mood remains buoyed amid expectations that global central banks would slow its rate hike pace amid mounting recession fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected 25 bps rate hike, noting that the “cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time.” Risk-on sentiment will continue undermining the dollar’s safe-haven appeal unless growth and geopolitical fears resurface. On the macro front, the second-tier US Factory Orders and JOLTS job openings data will be reported, which are expected to have a limited impact on the buck. Although, speeches by the Fed official Williams and Mester will be closely followed for any hints on the size of the next Fed rate hike.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gearing up for a fresh upswing to $1,712  – Confluence Detector

XAU/USD broke its consolidative phase below $1,680 and jumped to hit the highest level in two weeks at $1,702 on Monday, as the dollar lost ground once again after investors cheered the UK government’s tax rate cut U-turn. UK Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng confirmed the government will not go ahead with a plan to scrap the 45% income tax rate. GBP/USD stormed through the roof, lifting the market mood while weighing negatively on the dollar. Further, the dollar’s misery was accentuated by a miss on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which raised doubts about the Fed’s 75 bps rate hike plans. The September ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, as new orders plunged into contraction. The USD-priced in gold extended its recovery momentum, despite the upsurge in Wall Street indices.

Gold price technical outlook: Daily chart

Gold price defied the bearish odds and jumped above the descending 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,680, closing Monday above that level.

This has affirmed a bullish bias, especially after the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) swung into positive territory for the first time since August 16.

Bulls need to clear daily highs to challenge the flattish 50 DMA at $1,724. Ahead of that, the September 14 high at $1,707 could test bearish commitments.

On the downside, the 21 DMA is seen as crucial support, below which the rising trendline support at $1,667 will offer some cushion to bulls.

Further down, the $1,660 support area will be a tough nut to crack for bears.