Gold on track for best week since 2020 as Silver smashes through $100 in explosive rally

Retail sales rose 1.3% in November.
Bond yields climbed across the curve.
Spot gold hit a record high of $4,988.17/oz.
Platinum drew buying interest as a cheaper alternative to gold.
Palladium gained more than 4%.

Ali Merchant, CMT TwT Learning

Silver prices surged above $100 an ounce for the first time on Friday, with spot silver jumping 5.4% to $101.46 by 19:21 GMT, while gold advanced toward $4,988/oz and set another record high. The rally comes as investors flock to safe-haven assets amid geopolitical turmoil and growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.

Gold has jumped 40% so far in 2026, extending a massive 147% rally in 2025, with gold hitting a record $4,988 per ounce on Friday. The gold-silver ratio has also collapsed: for the first time in 14 years, just 50 ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold, down sharply from 105 ounces in April.

Silver’s 2025 rally was its biggest annual gain in LSEG records dating back to 1983. Adding to the tightness, China has been stockpiling silver for domestic use and has restricted exports since the start of the year.

The market’s impressive performance in 2025 was driven by robust investment demand across all precious metals and a prolonged spell of thin liquidity in the benchmark London silver market, as concerns over U.S. tariffs fueled heavy inflows into U.S. equities.

CME FedWatch

Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75

CME FedWatch January no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 97.2% today from 84.5% on December 23, 2025.

Technical analysis perspective

Gold / US Dollar

Spot gold is likely to trade inside $4,996 to $4,961 for now.
A breakout either side would trigger a move in the near term.
A sustained breakout above $4,966 would pave the way for a rally to $5,020.
On the contrary, a strong break below would $4,923.

Gold hourly chart

Gold/Silver ratio:

The gold–silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold (gold price ÷ silver price), a key gauge of relative value and potential moves.
It is below 50, the lowest since March 2008.
• The big question now is whether this rally can be sustained.

Gold/Silver ratio monthly chart

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

GLD recorded the highest level at 458.
The ETF remained a little shy of hitting 460.
454 is the key level next week above this a range trade between

GLD daily chart

GLD seasonality

Since 2007, GLD has risen an average of 3.3% in January 70% of the time, and 1.00% in February 58% of the time.

Author

Ali Merchant, CMT

TwT Learning

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management, He has been trading FX, FX options, US stock

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