Gold on edge: Jackson Hole and Ukraine talks keep prices muted

Gold slipped to $3,330 an ounce on Monday as investors tracked President Donald Trump’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alongside European and NATO leaders, while awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.

Trump expressed optimism about ending the war in Ukraine, said the U.S. would be “involved” in maintaining peace, and plans to call Russian President Vladimir Putin after the talks.

After a tour of the southeastern U.S., Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic said he is open to adjusting rates soon, citing pressure from import tariffs and high borrowing costs that are squeezing corporate profits. Lower interest rates generally support gold since the metal yields no interest.

Gold is up more than 25% year-to-date, hitting a record in April. Since then, it has largely traded sideways as investors weigh the fallout from the US-led trade war, concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical tensions, with central-bank buying helping to underpin prices.

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

• On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading inside a large symmetrical triangle.
• The descending resistance from the April 2025 all-time high (3,500) is capping upside near 3,395–3,415.
• Support is provided by a rising trendline around the 3,340–3,315 zone.
• Price action is likely to coil within 3,340–3,315 range for the time being.
• A decisive breakout above or below these levels should signal the next directional move.

Gold 4 Hourly chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

• GLD is pulling back toward the rising trendline support from the 05/2025 low of 292.87 and is currently trading in the 306–303 range.
• The ETF formed a double-top on 08/08/2025 and gapped down on the following Monday.
• Expect GLD to test the 306–303 area this week.
• A sustained hold of this support region would spark a rally.
• A decisive break below 303 would put the 301–300 area in play.

GLD 4 Hourly chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2006, GLD has posted an August gain of 1.5% in 60% of the years, while September has seen a decline of 0.80% in 37% of the years.