Gold near record highs poised for a new peak

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, reaching 3,490 USD per troy ounce, approaching an all-time high. The metal found support in growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September, along with a concurrent weakening of the US dollar.

Last week’s US inflation report bolstered hopes of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Officials from the central bank itself reinforced this view after Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, openly expressed her support for such a move.

The key event risk this week will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to define the scale and pace of the upcoming rate-cutting cycle.

US trade policy is also creating substantial uncertainty. An appeals court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were illegal, but kept them in force until 14 October to allow for an appeal to the Supreme Court. This political uncertainty is further fuelling demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

Four-hour chart

The XAU/USD pair completed an upward wave towards the 3,508.65 USD level. The focus now shifts to a potential corrective wave towards the breached resistance level, which could now function as support. The target for this correction is 3,469 USD. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s supportive economic outlook, a test of this support could see prices stage another rally, with the first target likely being the 3,530 USD mark. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line remain above zero and continue to rise, confirming the potential continuation of the upward trend. However, minor corrections cannot be ruled out.

One-hour chart

After testing the 3,500 USD level, the price is forming a corrective wave. The target for this pullback could be the support at 3,469 USD. Testing this level could pave the way for the resumption of the upward trend. This outlook is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal lines, after a period of increase, are now declining towards 50.0.

Conclusion

A combination of dovish Fed expectations, a softer dollar, and geopolitical trade uncertainties continues to support gold prices. The technical picture suggests a brief period of consolidation or a shallow pullback is likely before a potential retest of record highs.