Gold near breakout or breakdown? Trade talks and US data hold the

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are attempting a modest rebound, though downward pressure persists. Investors are repositioning ahead of key US economic data and policy decisions. At the same time, global trade optimism is reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Market sentiment has shifted, with easing geopolitical tensions adding to the bearish tone. Gold now stands at a crossroads, waiting for a clear trigger.

Gold rebound capped by upcoming US data and global trade optimism

The short-lived rebound in gold comes as investors adjust their positions ahead of a busy US economic calendar. Key data releases are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, with the second-quarter GDP report and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision taking center stage. These high-impact events are expected to shape the short-term direction of gold prices, keeping traders cautious.

At the same time, optimism surrounding global trade talks is reducing the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as gold. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in Stockholm. Reports suggest a possible 90-day extension of the tariff deadline. This development has calmed market nerves and contributed to a shift away from gold as a protective investment.

Further easing tensions, President Trump recently announced a new trade framework with the European Union, involving a blanket 15% tariff. In Asia, geopolitical risks have also diminished. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to ceasefire talks following US intervention. President Trump warned that trade negotiations would halt if hostilities continued. These moves have collectively dampened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold consolidates in ascending triangle as breakout levels approach

The chart below shows that gold is currently trading within an ascending triangle pattern. This formation is typically viewed as bullish from a technical standpoint. The chart reveals a consistent series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually gaining ground. However, strong resistance around the $3,420 level has been tested several times and rejected, showing that sellers are firmly defending this zone.

The repeated failures to break above the horizontal resistance are marked by orange circles on the chart, highlighting areas of strong selling pressure. Despite this, the overall price structure suggests that bulls are slowly building momentum. As long as the rising trendline remains intact, the ascending triangle pattern stays valid. This trendline is formed by connecting the higher lows since April.

The most recent decline to $3,312 once again found support at this trendline, attracting fresh buying interest. If this support breaks, it could invalidate the pattern and lead to a sharper correction. Conversely, a decisive breakout above $3,420, accompanied by strong volume, could spark a new rally. This setup reflects a market in consolidation, awaiting a clear catalyst from upcoming US economic data or major trade developments.

Conclusion

Gold is showing signs of recovery, but risks continue to limit its upside. Traders are reacting to global trade optimism and shifting focus to key US economic events. The technical setup indicates consolidation, rather than conviction. A breakout or breakdown will likely depend on this week’s data and headlines. Until then, gold remains in a holding pattern, with both bulls and bears waiting for direction.

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