Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
Gold
On a session where the reaction was broadly risk positive and (eventually USD supportive) in the wake of the payrolls report, gold closing decisively higher and with a positive candlestick, is encouraging for the bulls. The concern has been that the pullback from $1789 was another bull failure to scupper the breakout once more. However, aside from a brief intraday slip to $1756 (in the minutes following the payrolls announcement), gold held firm above the old May high of $1764 and began to pull higher once more. This is a good response from the market, which has now closed for five consecutive sessions above $1764. The four week uptrend has been tested (for a few minutes) but essentially holds intact still. Momentum indicators retain their positive configuration, albeit slightly less positive than a few days ago. Daily RSI is still above 60, whilst Stochastics are above 80. The US public holiday today is likely to mean little real conviction from today’s session and with the uptrend at $1769 today, this may even be breached. However, whilst gold continues to hold above $1764 we are still encouraged for the outlook of further upside to test $1795. The inference of the breakout above $1764 is still an implied target of $1820. We would lose our conviction below $1744.
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