Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Gold could be vulnerable to falls today if the US CPI print comes in above market expectations. The core m/m reading is expected to be +0.3%. The core y/y reading is expected to be 4.2%. If the reading is above +0.4% for the m/m and +4.6% expect gold to weaken on USD strength in expectations of a hawkish Fed.
Over the last 10 years, gold has fallen in value from September 14 – November 26 a total of 9 times. The average loss has been -4.52% and the biggest fall was in 2016 with a -10.20% drop. The largest gain was in 2018 with a modest +1.77% rise.
Major Trade Risks: If the CPI print surprises to the downside then expect gold to gain sharply and invalidate this outlook.
Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.