Gold could be vulnerable to falls today if the US CPI print comes in above market expectations. The core m/m reading is expected to be +0.3%. The core y/y reading is expected to be 4.2%. If the reading is above +0.4% for the m/m and +4.6% expect gold to weaken on USD strength in expectations of a hawkish Fed.

Over the last 10 years, gold has fallen in value from September 14 – November 26 a total of 9 times. The average loss has been -4.52% and the biggest fall was in 2016 with a -10.20% drop. The largest gain was in 2018 with a modest +1.77% rise.

Major Trade Risks: If the CPI print surprises to the downside then expect gold to gain sharply and invalidate this outlook.


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High Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

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