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Gold in focus! Is this the perfect time to buy gold?

Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA Financial Source

Gold tends to rise at this time of year due to strong demand from China for the Chinese Lunar New Year. Over the last 32 years gold has risen 21 times between December 23 and February 17. The average gain has been +2.85%. The largest gain was in the QE world of 2008 with a whopping +14.76% profit. With the Fed committing to ultra loose easy monetary policy is this the best time to buy gold now?

Trade Risks:

The main risk to this trade is if there is strong risk off trading heading into year end on the US stimulus bill not being passed.
Another key risk is a large increase in gold ETF selling. It has steadied recently, but an acceleration in selling could drag gold prices lower.
A cancellation of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.

Learn more about HYCM

Author

Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA

Financial Source

Giles is the chief market analyst for Financial Source. His goal is to help you find simple, high-conviction fundamental trade opportunities. He has regular media presentations being featured in National and International Press.

AUD/USD eyes 100-SMA hurdle near 0.7035 as hawkish RBA counters firmer USD

AUD/USD regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to 0.7030 during the Asian session, reversing the previous day's corrective slide from a one-month high as hawkish RBA rate expectations continue to support the Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the 100-day SMA pivotal resistance amid a firmer US Dollar as traders brace for Australia’s September CPI report on Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold sticks to intraday losses around $4,000 as USD stays firm ahead of FOMC

Gold maintains its offered tone through the first half of Tuesday’s European session, with bearish traders looking to extend the slide further below the $4,000 psychological mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. The precious metal, however, holds above the three-month low touched on Monday, as traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.

Pi Network stalls as weak crypto sentiment caps recovery

Pi Network (PI) holds steady above $0.0760 at press time on Tuesday, stalling after a roughly 2% rebound the previous day. The broader market's weak sentiment and reduced trading volume weigh on the PI token. The technical outlook is bearish, with price capped below a long-term resistance trendline and weak momentum.

France tests the Euro's nerve: What the OAT spread is telling FX traders

France's 10-year borrowing premium over Germany hit its widest since the 2011 debt crisis last week. With public spending above 57% of GDP, unrest on the streets and a presidential election next spring, cuts look unlikely. If Paris cannot trim, the bill may be paid quietly through financial repression.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.

Gold in focus! Is this the perfect time to buy gold?

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