Gold holds ground with rate-cut hopes and external pressures rising

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to find support as rate-cut expectations and global volatility lift defensive assets. After a recent pullback, the metal is showing signs of stabilization, supported by weaker US data and rising prospects of monetary easing. This backdrop continues to influence gold’s short-term direction. External pressures, including surging Japanese bond yields and policy divergence among central banks, are adding to the market’s uncertainty.

Gold finds support as Fed pivot bets rise and global risks mount

Gold is stabilizing after a sharp retracement and attempting to regain upward momentum. Despite the recent dip, gold continues to attract support near this level, reflecting steady demand under current macro conditions. Market attention is now on weakening US data, particularly the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index fell to 48.2 in November, indicating that manufacturing activity continues to slow. This marked the ninth consecutive monthly decline in manufacturing activity, adding weight to the view that the US economy is steadily weakening.

This slowdown has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates soon. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting. Slowing inflation and weaker data have increased confidence in a shift toward monetary easing. This environment supports non-yielding assets like gold.

Furthermore, rising global uncertainties are supporting gold, in line with weakening US indicators. Japanese long-term bond yields surged to multi-year highs as expectations grew that the Bank of Japan could tighten policy soon. At the same time, disagreements within the Fed have added new uncertainty to its policy outlook. These elements, combined with anticipation around upcoming US employment and services data, continue to shape the outlook for gold.

Gold holds above rising trendline with bullish base structures intact

The gold chart below shows price holding steadily above a rising trendline that has defined the uptrend in recent months. This trendline continues to act as dynamic support, allowing the metal to form higher lows during each correction. Price extended higher from the rounded base but failed to hold gains, retreating near a key resistance area.

Over the past several weeks, two rounded base formations have developed above the rising trendline, signaling a constructive setup. These formations reflect sustained buying interest and suggest steady demand beneath the surface. Each base represents a period of consolidation, followed by upward attempts, highlighting continued strength during corrective phases.  

Overall, the broader structure still favors the upside, with the trendline and repeated basing activity supporting the move. As long as this structure holds and price stays above key support, the technical setup remains constructive. Momentum is likely to return once the current consolidation phase is complete.

Gold outlook: Macro drivers and technical structure support further upside

Gold remains in a constructive position as both macro conditions and technical structure continue to support the uptrend. Weak economic data and rising rate-cut expectations have created a favorable environment for non-yielding assets. At the same time, global pressures and policy uncertainty are helping sustain demand. Technically, the uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above key support. This alignment of macro and technical factors keeps gold well-positioned for further upside in the near term.