|

Gold goes parabolic after Trump reignites global trade war – Could $4000 be next? [Video]

Gold prices are exploding higher as a perfect storm of bond market chaos, recession fears and a full-blown trade war rattles markets and fuels a massive flight to safety. On Friday, Gold prices surged back above $3,350 an ounce and traders are now calling for $4,000 – or higher – before year-end.

On Friday, President Donald Trump threatened Apple with 25% tariffs if it fails to relocate iPhone production to the U.S and 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1st. The aggressive move comes just as the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.60%, triggering a market shock that sent yields sharply lower on recession fears.

Analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence say this is no accident.

In a note to clients, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence said “A trade war hits all of Trump’s economic goals in one shot. The Fed won’t cut rates, so Trump’s using tariffs to crash markets and force their hand. It’s not a mistake – its strategy.” 

Treasury auctions are failing. Moody’s just downgraded the U.S credit rating. And Washington just passed a $3.8 trillion tax-and-spend package with no plan to pay for it. The result? Panic in the bond market — and Gold ripping higher on the back of collapsing faith in government paper. 

This isn’t a yield curve story anymore. It’s a credibility crisis. 

As traders race to get out of long-duration debt – Gold is reclaiming its role as the ultimate store of value. Unlike Treasuries, it doesn’t require an AAA rating – or trust in politicians. 

Central banks across the world are buying Gold at a record breaking pace. Wall Street’s most powerful Banks and Hedge funds are following suit – dumping bonds and rotating into Gold. According to proprietary data tracked by GSC Commodity Intelligence – net long positions in Gold just hit multi-year highs and the flow is only accelerating. 

French bank Société Générale now sees Gold exceeding $4,000 an ounce in 2025, while Goldman Sachs has gone one step further with its call for Gold to surpass $4,500 an ounce within the next 12 months under extreme market conditions. 

Historically, rising yields hurt Gold. Not anymore. Today, yields are rising for the wrong reasons — and that’s rocket fuel for Gold.

As traders watch yields fall not because of Fed cuts, but because of looming economic damage from Trump’s tariff threats, the safe-haven bid into Gold only intensifies. 

Trump isn’t just restarting the global trade war – he’s rewriting the rules of global financial markets. And Gold is the only asset that still makes sense. 

The bond market used to be the world’s safest asset class. Now it’s a house of cards. Debt is spiralling out of control. Confidence is collapsing. And the Trump administration just launched a Tariff War that could bring the global economy to its knees. 

Gold doesn’t care about politics. It doesn’t default. And right now, it’s the one asset rising as everything else starts to shake.

Smart money isn’t waiting for confirmation. It’s already in Gold. 

And if this storm keeps building – $4,000 could just be the start! 

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions: 

Author

Phil Carr

Phil Carr

The Gold & Silver Club

Phil is the co-founder and Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading Firm specializing in Metals, Energies and Soft Commodities.

More from Phil Carr
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).