Gold Forecast: XAU/USD retains bullish bias ahead of this week’s key US macro releases

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs to the $4,330 region during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity remains well within striking distance of its highest level since October 21, touched on Friday, and seems poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. Traders, however, might opt to wait for this week's important US macro releases, which would shape expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path and drive demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

The delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and Retail Sales are scheduled for release on Tuesday, along with the provisional manufacturing and services PMIs. This will be followed by the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will determine the near-term trajectory for the US Dollar (USD). Investors this week will further take cues from the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Friday. This should provide a fresh directional impetus to the Gold price.

In the meantime, dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations fail to assist the USD to register any meaningful recovery from a two-month low, touched last Thursday, and continue to underpin the yellow metal. In a widely expected move, the US central bank lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) at the end of a two-day policy meeting last Wednesday and projected one more rate cut in 2026. Investors, however, remain hopeful about two more rate cuts next year in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, saying that the central bank does not want its policy to push down on job creation amid downside risks to the labor market.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said last Friday that he was leaning toward choosing either former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the US central bank next year. Market participants seem convinced that the new Trump-aligned Fed chair will be an uber-dovish and slash interest rates regardless of the economic fundamentals. This has been another factor behind the recent USD decline and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Moreover, the emergence of dip-buying at the start of a new week and acceptance above the $4,300 mark validate the positive outlook.

Gold 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

Last week's breakout through the $4,245-4,255 supply zone was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, short-term moving averages slope higher, keeping the intraday bias pointing north. The broader setup remains supportive as dips attract demand around dynamic supports. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays positive but has been contracting from recent peaks, suggesting fading bullish momentum; the MACD line holds above the Signal line and above the zero line. RSI (14) prints 68 (near overbought), easing from earlier extremes and hinting that upside could be capped until momentum resets.

If buyers reassert control and the MACD histogram re-expands, the advance could extend towards retesting the all-time peak, while a further contraction accompanied by an RSI roll-over from the high-60s would favor consolidation. A sustained hold above rising short-term moving averages would preserve the bullish tone, whereas a close beneath these dynamic supports would open the door to a deeper pullback. Overall, momentum remains positive but stretched, which could translate into choppy trade before a decisive break emerges.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)