Gold extends correction to $4,326 as $4,250 blinks

Current market structure

• Gold drops to 4326 as correction deepens.
• Immediate support sits at $4320, Next $4250
• Lower Highs and Lower Lows are developing on 4 Hour time frame.
• Momentum is weakening with lower lows.
• A measured bounce may face initial hurdle at $4400-$4420.
• Upside recovery to extend on strong breakout above $4450.

Fundamental drivers

The current macro backdrop is unfavourable for gold. Rising US Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a September Fed rate hike are supporting the dollar and reducing the relative appeal of non-yielding gold. Markets are also focusing heavily on upcoming US labour-market data, including Nonfarm Payroll.

Renewed Geopolitical tensions provide an important counterforce through safe-haven demand, but hostilities in Hormuz Strait waters trigger higher oil prices, simultaneously increasing inflation concerns and strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.

Intraday possibilities

Primary scenario — Bearish continuation

While below 4,400–4,420, rallies may remain vulnerable to selling. A decisive break below 4,320 could expose 4,300 → 4,250.

Alternative — Oversold rebound

H4 RSI is deeply oversold, so a technical bounce toward 4,420–4,450 is quite possible. The quality of that rebound should be judged by whether price can reclaim and hold 4,450.

Bullish reversal trigger: sustained H4/D1 acceptance above 4,505–4,520.

Short-term bias

Immediate trend remains extremely bearish and rallies are being sold with lack of strong buying interest.

However, persistent selling pressure is creating oversold conditions in 4 hour and 1 hour time frames which indicates sellers are not strongly interested to sell on dips and a short term buying rebound may start taking shape around these lows or on further drop towards $4330-$4320.

Recovery rally bounce may target $4400-$4420 while further continuation of bullish rebound will require strong breakout above $4450.

A short-term bullish reversal confirmation would be considered if Gold successfully manages to break and sustain above major turning point $4505-$4520.

Note: These are author's personal observations based on price action, not a trading advice.