Gold explodes, Dollar declines, Nat Gas surges, tech, earnings and Fed in the spotlight

Stocks mostly advanced on Monday, though the action was mixed under the surface. The Dow gained 313 points, the S&P added 34, and the Nasdaq rose 100, while the Russell slipped 9, Transports lost 39, and the Equal-Weight S&P advanced 18. The Mag 7 did their thing, gaining 155 points and once again carrying the tape.

But the real headline wasn’t stocks — it was natural gas, which exploded higher by 30% on the day and is now up a staggering 133% in just five sessions. A massive winter storm has knocked roughly 12% of U.S. production offline while demand is surging as temperatures plunge and grid stress intensifies. It’s dramatic, no doubt — but it’s also weather-driven. Once the cold breaks and production comes back online, this move should cool off just as fast.

Gold was no less volatile, trading across multiple psychological levels. It opened near $4,987, ripped through $5,000 and $5,100, before settling around $5,008. Call it a mix of geopolitical unrest, momentum players piling in, and a steadily weakening dollar — all gasoline on the same fire.

And yes, the dollar slid further as chatter grew that the U.S. may help support the yen. Why would we do that? Two reasons. First, stability. A rapidly falling yen forces investors to unwind massive carry trades, and when that happens the damage doesn’t stop at FX — it spills into equities, bonds, and credit. It can also destabilize Japan’s bond market and force Japanese investors to sell U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields higher at exactly the wrong time. Supporting the yen keeps markets orderly.

Second, supply and demand. Rising U.S. deficits mean heavy Treasury issuance. Domestic buyers respond to yield, but foreign buyers care just as much about currency. A softer dollar improves their total return, making Treasuries more attractive without yields having to spike. That’s the push-pull. And just for context — the dollar is already down about 11% since February 2025. Capisce?

All of this lands in a monster week. Four of the Mag 7 report, more than 90 companies are on deck, and the FOMC meeting officially began this morning. In about 33 hours we’ll get the expected “no cut” decision — cue Stevey Miran stomping his feet for a 100 bp cut. Kalshi now has Ricky at 51%, Warsh down to 29%, and Kevy Hassett apparently out of the picture — at least for now.

We’ll hear from HCA, JBLU, UPS, BA, NEE, SYY, RTX, UNH, NOC, GM, KMB, and UNP, with STX and TXN reporting later. These two matter.

Seagate is a clean proxy for data-infrastructure and storage demand — cloud capex and enterprise trends show up there early.

Texas Instruments gives us a read on industrial, auto, and analog demand beyond pure AI. Together, they’ll help shape tech risk appetite into the end of the week. And don’t forget — STX is up 30% YTD and a stunning 252% over the past year.

Bonds caught a bid, with TLT up 0.5% and TLH up 0.4%, though yields barely moved. The 10-year sits at 4.22% and the 30-year at 4.81%.

Oil traded up to $61.70 before closing at $60.63, still comfortably inside the $58.50–$62.20 range. This morning it’s ticking higher and holding above trend support.

Gold is back on the move again today, up another $75 to $5,085. Where it goes next? That’s anyone’s guess.

Europe is higher after news of a landmark India-EU trade deal — the media calling it the “mother of all deals,” covering roughly 25% of global GDP and a third of global trade. Machinery, transportation equipment, and chemicals should be key beneficiaries. ASML, Volvo, LVMH, and Deutsche Bank earnings are on deck.

U.S. futures are mixed — Dow down 47, S&P up 17, Nasdaq up 145, Russell up 10. The VIX has settled back into the complacent zone at 15.99, which tends to support equities.

The S&P closed at 6,950, with trendline support down at 6,838, but for now the path of least resistance still looks higher. STX and TXN will help set the tone for tech — just like TSMC did two weeks ago.

GM, UNH, BA, UPS, NEE will help set the tone for the broader market…. S&P 7,000 anyone?

Buckle up.

Rigatoni alla vitorio

This is so simple and takes no more than 25 mins.

For this you need - 1 can of crushed tomatoes, sweet cherry tomatoes, garlic, olive oil, s&p, Rigatoni and of course Fresh Grated Parmegiana. What makes this dish burst is the cold butter at the end.

Bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil on the back burner.

Begin by browning 3 whole cloves of garlic in olive oil…just enough to give it some color but do not burn them. Do not slice or crush the garlic…leave it peeled and whole.

Now add crushed tomatoes and stir. Next add in the sliced cherry tomatoes. Season with s&p. Cook on med hi heat for 20 mins…. or until the cherry tomatoes soften/burst.

Toss the pasta in the water and cook for 8 mins.

Now – run the sauce thru a blender and until pureed. Pour it back in the sauté pan.

When the pasta is done – using a slotted spoon – add the pasta to the sauté pan…. but before you mix it – toss in 4 or 5 dollops of cold butter. Now mix and let the butter melt into the hot pasta and sauce.

When serving – dress it with some fresh grated parmegiana cheese.