Gold dips as caution, profit-taking, and index rebalancing weigh on prices

Gold slipped Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and position‑squaring ahead of a key U.S. jobs report and U.S.–Venezuela tensions, with additional headwinds from BCOM index rebalancing slated for 9–15 January.

Spot gold XAU= fell 0.6% to $4,429.68 per ounce, as of 0821 GMT. Silver dropped 2.26% to 75.92 per ounce.

Data on Wednesday showed U.S. job openings slid to a 14‑month low in November and hiring remained sluggish, signaling softer labor demand. Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. non‑farm payrolls for further guidance on the monetary policy outlook.

Gold and Silver Sell-off after an exceptional run, precious metals have become heavily overweight in portfolios. Analysts at JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank estimate that billions of dollars in gold and silver futures may be offloaded this week to bring allocations back down toward the 15% cap.

Silver has struggled to sustain moves above $80 an ounce. Although the long‑term outlook remains constructive, an increasing number of banks are cautioning investors about heightened near‑term volatility.

CME Fedwatch

Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75.

• CME FedWatch January no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 88.4% today from 68% on December 08, 2025.

Technical analysis perspective

Gold/US Dollar:

• Spot gold is retreating in an orderly move within a descending channel from the Jan 6 high near $4,500.
• Prices are targeting further downside toward support at $4,406–$4,402.
• The channel midpoint is capping rebounds around $4,428.
• A sustained break above $4,428 would likely meet renewed selling pressure near $4,440.

Gold hourly chart

Gold/Silver Ratio:

• The gold-silver ratio tracks how many ounces of silver are required to buy one ounce of gold by dividing gold’s price by silver’s price. It is key metric investors use to judge relative value and anticipate potential market moves.
• The gold-silver ratio is retreating from it’s recent low between 54 – 56 low.
• Historically, a ratio at or below 60 has often preceded a sharp decline in both gold and silver prices.

Gold/Silver ratio monthly chart

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

• GLD set a new all-time high at 418.45 on Friday, December 26, leaving a notable upside gap.
• ETF has since pulled back after being rejected at 412, the late-December gap level.
• While 412 continues to cap rebounds, a decline toward 403–398 remains likely.
• A decisive break above 412 could open the door to move back toward 418, though this scenario appears unlikely for now.

GLD daily chart

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2007, GLD has risen an average of 3.3% in January 70% of the time, and 1.00% in February 58% of the time.