|

Gold, Chart of the Week: XAU/USD thrown to the bears at the edge of the abyss

  • Gold is pressured below critical multi-timeframe structures.
  • The following is an MTF frame analysis of the gold price. 

The gold price remains well embedded below its 200-week moving average due to the expectations that the US central bank will keep on raising rates at historically large clips in the face of strong inflationary headwinds. Closing at its lowest in more than two years on Friday as the dollar rose to a two-decade high following the Federal Reserve's latest hike to US interest rates last week, gold could be at a point of no return, at least for the immediate future should the USD and rates continue to move higher keeping pressure on the precious metals complex.

''We see the potential for continued outflows from money managers and ETF holdings to weigh on prices moving forward, which ultimately raises the probability of a pending capitulation from the small number of family offices and proprietary trading shops that hold complacent length in gold,'' the analysts at TD Securities argued. 

''In this context, while prices are certainly weak, precious metals' price action could still have further to fall as the restrictive rates regime is set to last for longer.''

Let's move to the technical landscape:

Gold monthly chart

The price is extending lower and lower on a monthly basis and has just taken out some critical levels on the lower time frames as well as the monthly structures. A break of $1,577 opens risk to $1,512.

Gold weekly chart

We have a similar scenario on the weekly chart towards the support of $1,632 following a break of key structure.

Gold daily and H1 charts

The daily chart is a little more clouded with the M-formation, a reversion pattern that could pull in the price prior to the next move to the downside. 

On the other hand, the hourly chart has already seen a correction and if the bears commit to below 1,650, then the downside could play out a lot sooner, leaving the opening sessions as prospective bearish plays to start the week off. 

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trims gains, nears 1.1700

The EUR/USD pair eases in the American afternoon and approaches the 1.1700 mark. The pair surged earlier in the day after the ECB left interest rates unchanged and upwardly revised inflation and growth figures. The US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in November, nearing Fed’s goal.

GBP/USD returns to 1.3370 after BoE, US CPI

The GBP/USD pair jumped towards the 1.3440 early in the day, following the BoE decision to cut rates, and US CPI data, which was much softer than anticipated. The US Dollar, however, managed to regain the ground lost during US trading hours.

Gold extends its consolidative phase around $4,330

The bright metal cannot attract speculative interest on Thursday, despite central banks announcements and the United States latest inflation update. XAU/USD is stuck around $4,330, confined to a tight intraday range.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady while XRP slides amid mixed ETF flows

Bitcoin eyes short-term breakout above $87,000, underpinned by a significant increase in ETF inflows. Ethereum defends support around $2,800 as mild ETF outflows suppress its recovery. XRP holds above at $1.82 amid bearish technical signals and persistent inflows into ETFs.

Bank of England cuts rates in heavily divided decision

The Bank of England has cut rates to 3.75%, but the decision was more hawkish than expected, leaving market rates higher and sterling slightly stronger. It's a close call whether the Bank cuts again in February or March.

Ripple holds $1.82 support as low retail demand weighs on the token

Ripple (XRP) is trading between a key support at $1.82 and resistance at $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting the lethargic sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market.