Gold bulls cautious ahead of Jackson Hole: $4,550 or $4,650?

Current market structure

Gold retains a bullish recovery structure, trading near $4,600 after rebounding sharply from the intraday drop to $4569 as per FXSTREET data.

Price remains above key trend support at $4550 and 38.2% Fibonacci zone, but momentum is consolidating below the $4,700 resistance zone which witnessed cautious profit booking and correctional pullback ahead of key address by Fed Chair on Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fundamental and technical analysis

Fundamentally, persistent U.S. inflation is limiting upside through Fed-hike expectations, while Treasury buybacks, fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty continue to underpin safe-haven demand.

Markets now await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for policy signals.

Technically, the bias remains constructive above $4570. A sustained break above $4625 would reinforce bullish momentum and expose $4650–$4690 while next key bullish extension aims $4720 followed by 50% Fibonacci zone $4770.

Elevated momentum leaves room for corrective pullbacks.

A continued selling pressure below $4555 will eventually expose $4525-$4515 while next downside correctional extension may retest $4450

Intraday and short-term outlook

Bias: Buy on dips / bullish above $4515.

Resistance: $4650 .

Breakout target: $4700 → $4770.

Support: $4555 → $4525 → $4515.

Deeper support: $4450 → $4380.

Bearish Momentum Shift: Sustained break below $4515.

Intraday outlook: Consolidation above support $4570 followed by decisive breakout above $4625-$4650 to lead to another attempt at $4,700.

A decisive breakout would signal renewed upside momentum; rejection could trigger a corrective move toward $4,525–$4,515.