AUD/USD outlook: Larger bears to remain intact while 0.70 barrier caps recovery attempts

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

AUD/USD

Fresh recovery attempts in early Monday stalled again on approach to psychological 0.7000 resistance, as oil prices and dollar strengthened and deflated risk sentiment.

Repeated failure to clear initial Fibo resistance at 0.6982 (23.6% of 0.7237/0.6903) and rejection under 0.70, warn that recovery from 0.6903 (Oct 1 low) may be limited and keep larger downtrend intact.

Negative technical studies on daily chart (RSI turns south/14-d momentum heading deeper into negative territory/multiple MA bear-crosses with the latest 20/200 death-cross) contribute to scenario.

Near-term action should remain biased lower while holding below 0.70 that would keep larger downtrend intact and offer better levels to enter bearish market.

Conversely, sustained break above 0.70 would ease immediate downside risk, but will require extension through 0.7030/50 resistance zone (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7237/0.6903/converging 100/200DMAs) to confirm positive signal.

Release of RBA’s Minutes on Tuesday and US CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched for fresh signals (Australia’s central bank has raised rates four times in a row in 2026 and remains on track for further tightening, while inflation in US is expected to rise further and keep Fed policymakers alerted, especially after further drop in consumer sentiment and persistent tensions in the Middle East.

Res: 0.7000; 0.7035; 0.7045; 0.7070.
Sup: 0.6963; 0.6932; 0.6903; 0.6887.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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