Gold bounces back as inflation remains steady

Ali Merchant, CMT TwT Learning

Spot gold remained around $3,349 per ounce as traders analyzed the latest US CPI report, solidifying expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

Headline annual inflation stayed steady at 2.7% in July, slightly below forecasts of 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.1%. The data indicates that tariff-related inflationary pressures remain modest for now, providing the Federal Reserve with room to implement a 25-basis point rate cut in September.

The probability of a rate cut has increased from 88% late yesterday to nearly 93%.

Trump announced On Monday that he would not impose tariffs on gold, a decision welcomed by global bullion markets that ended days of speculation about the yellow metal being caught up in the ongoing trade tensions.

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

Gold is currently trading within a large symmetrical triangle on the four-hour charts.
The descending resistance line from the April 2025 all-time high of 3,500 is acting as a key barrier around 3,400 to 3,420.
Gold rebounded after testing the upward trendline established from the May 2025 lows of 3,120, now intersecting around the 3,330 to 3,305 level.
Prices bounced off the 3,331 level, which is near the key support zone of 3,330.
Currently, gold is likely to oscillate between the 3,400 - 3,430 and 3,330 - 3,305 ranges.
A sustained breakout above or below these levels would determine the next directional move.

Gold 4 Hourly chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold trust) ETF:

GLD has respected the rising trendline support from the May 2025 low of 292.87, now trading between 305 and 302.50.
The ETF formed a double top pattern last Friday, leading to a decline with a downside price gap on Monday.
GLD is headed toward the 305 to 302.50 range this week.

GLD 4 Hourly chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2006, GLD has posted an August gain of 1.5% in 60% of the years, while September has seen a decline of 0.80% in 37% of the years.

Author

Ali Merchant, CMT

TwT Learning

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management, He has been trading FX, FX options, US stock

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.