Danish card and MobilePay spending, up to the week ending on 10 January, show a drop in spending of 16% compared to the first week of 2019. The decline is driven by a drop in physical spending of almost 40% compared to the same week in 2019, whereas online sales remains elevated.

Note that the base year is 2019, not 2020, in order to compare to a year unaffected by COVID-19.

The weakness is mainly driven by extensive restrictions, in place until at least 7 February. There are some distortions due to the exact timing of New Year's Eve, but there is little doubt that the new restrictions are having a significant impact on spending.

The restrictions on a number of retail stores show up clearly in the data. DIY spending, furniture spending and spending in shoe stores and clothing shops all took a dive, as online spending was not enough to compensate for the decline in physical stores.

Restaurants, cafés and bars also saw a sharp drop in spending, with takeaway being the only category holding up.

The start of the year is typically the high point for travel spending, as people start planning for the summer holiday. However, compared to normal (2019), spending remains down by 80-90%, despite a more positive vaccine outlook.

We do not expect to see a significant improvement in the data until the economy opens again, though the next release will give a clearer picture, as the distortions from the turn of the year leave the data.

Download The Full Spending Monitor

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rises above 1.21 amid better market mood

EUR/USD has been extending its gains, recapturing 1.21 as the market mood improves. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment beat estimates with 61.8 points. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen's testimony is awaited.


GBP/USD clings to 1.36 ahead of Yellen's testimony

GBP/USD is edging above 1.36 as markets eagerly Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen's testimony. The UK parliament is set to process the Brexit deal as Britain ramps up its vaccination campaign.


Gold recovers further from multi-week lows, climbs to $1845 region

Gold gained positive traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. A modest USD pullback was seen as a key factor that benefitted the metal. The risk-on mood, rallying US bond yields might cap gains for the commodity.

Gold news

Breaking: Ethereum explodes to new yearly high, validating upward price action

Ethereum has ascended to new yearly highs after breaking the recent peak achieved in January. The flagship altcoin is trading at $1,372 amid the push for gains eyeing $1,400. 

Read more

US Dollar Index: Downside pressure alleviated above 91.00

DXY met sellers in the 91.00 neighbourhood on Monday and now retreats to the 90.50 region on turnaround Tuesday.

US Dollar Index News

Forex Majors