Global strategy 3Q 2026

With the signing of a framework agreement and subsequent negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in June, the outlook for the third quarter is favorable. Oil prices have already fallen sharply, and futures are pricing in a further decline over the course of the year. This will ease the burden on consumers and reduce uncertainty among businesses, with positive effects on the economy.

The ECB and the U.S. Fed, however, will still have to grapple with the aftermath of the crisis. The question is whether interest rates will need to be raised to ensure that inflation rates return to their respective target levels. We do not expect the ECB to raise interest rates further, but we do expect the Fed to raise rates in the third quarter. Uncertainty about the path of inflation, improved economic data, and the persistently high financing needs of Germany and the U.S. suggest that yields in the bond markets will generally not return to the levels seen before the outbreak of the crisis. For the U.S., we even anticipate a rise in yields. Given current yield levels and the expected continued modest narrowing of spreads, we continue to view euro-denominated corporate bonds as attractive.

Following the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee, speculation about interest rates has gained momentum. In our view, this should provide sustained support for the dollar, and we therefore expect the U.S. currency to strengthen against the euro. As for the Swiss franc, we anticipate a slight weakening as the geopolitical situation stabilizes. This environment implies a sideways trend for gold for the time being. CEE currencies, on the other hand, should generally benefit, even though there are significant differences in the countries’ starting points.

The stock markets have weathered the storm of recent months well. While the AI boom was largely responsible for this, earnings growth in sectors other than technology also surprised on the upside, both in the U.S. and in Europe. We generally expect further price increases in the stock markets, even though there will be significant differences between sectors. Selecting the right stocks - even within subsectors - will therefore remain crucial. We favor technology, financials, and industrials; conversely, we see no potential in consumer staples, healthcare, and telecommunications, to name just a few.

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