A suggested, a mixed day

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 100.970.  

Energies: Aug '26 Crude is Down at 73.82.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 6 ticks and trading at 112.28.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 424 ticks Lower and trading at 7435.00.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4137.00.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Higher with the exception of the Hang Seng exchange, all of Europe is trading Mixed. 

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• ADP Weekly Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST.   Major.
• Flash Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.   Major.   
• Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  Major.
• Richmond Mfg. Index is out at 10 AM EST.   Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST.  The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow climbed Higher by 136 points, but the other indices lost ground.  All-in-all a Neutral or Mixed day.  Today our bias will remain Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

It appears that although an MOU was signed between Iran and the US, much has yet to be determined regarding the actual issues of the agreement.