Global inflation watch: Tariff pass-through still in progress

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Overview: Inflation picked up speed in August across major economies, though still very moderately. Inflation expectations continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world. In the US, tariff costs are slowly making their way through the economy, but impact on final consumer prices has so far been limited. In the euro area, both realized and expected inflation hover pleasantly close to the 2% target. Oil prices remain relatively stable despite the uncertain geopolitical landscape.

Inflation expectations: Both survey and market-based inflation expectations measures have remained relatively stable over the past month. Short-term US expectations remain elevated due to the tariffs, but longer-term expectations are well anchored on both sides of the Atlantic.

US: August CPI came out just slightly above expectations, headline inflation was +0.38% m/m SA (2.9% y/y, cons. +0.3%, July +0.2%) and core inflation +0.35% m/m SA (3.1% y/y, cons. +0.3%, July +0.3%). The slight acceleration was driven by food and housing services, while price pressures for other services moderated. Importantly, tariff-driven inflation in core goods was still rather limited. The PPI illustrated how retailers and wholesalers first increased their sales margins in July ahead of the tariff announcements and then absorbed most of the increased costs in August. We still expect the Fed to resume quarterly 25bp cuts in September.

Download the Full Report!

Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

GBP/USD turns negative; slips back to 1.3530

GBP/USD comes under pressure and weakens toward the 1.3530 zone on Tuesday. Cable thus leaves behind two daily upticks in a row and retreats further from Monday’s multi-week tops past 1.3570 following humble gains in the Greenback and disheartening UK jobs data.

EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.1570

EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier bullish attempt toward the proximity of 1.1600 the figure, coming under fresh downside pressure and revisiting the 1.1580-1.1570 band as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. The better tone in the US Dollar in the latter part of the day weighs on the pair amid steady volatility in the Middle East. Looking forward, the release of the FOMC Minutes takes centre stage on Wednesday.

Gold remains offered around $4,350

Gold accelerates its daily correction and revisits the $4,350 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal sets aside two daily advances in a row and follows the absence of direction in the US Dollar, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and continuous uncertainty in the Middle East crisis.

HYPE extends gains as Hyperliquid urges SEC action on pre-IPO futures framework

Hyperliquid (HYPE) retains a broad bullish outlook, trading above $59.00 on Tuesday. The decentralized exchange (DEX) native token marks the second consecutive day of gains as bulls return, eyeing a short-term breakout above $60.00.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.