Global inflation watch: Tariff pass-through still in progress

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Overview: Inflation picked up speed in August across major economies, though still very moderately. Inflation expectations continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world. In the US, tariff costs are slowly making their way through the economy, but impact on final consumer prices has so far been limited. In the euro area, both realized and expected inflation hover pleasantly close to the 2% target. Oil prices remain relatively stable despite the uncertain geopolitical landscape.

Inflation expectations: Both survey and market-based inflation expectations measures have remained relatively stable over the past month. Short-term US expectations remain elevated due to the tariffs, but longer-term expectations are well anchored on both sides of the Atlantic.

US: August CPI came out just slightly above expectations, headline inflation was +0.38% m/m SA (2.9% y/y, cons. +0.3%, July +0.2%) and core inflation +0.35% m/m SA (3.1% y/y, cons. +0.3%, July +0.3%). The slight acceleration was driven by food and housing services, while price pressures for other services moderated. Importantly, tariff-driven inflation in core goods was still rather limited. The PPI illustrated how retailers and wholesalers first increased their sales margins in July ahead of the tariff announcements and then absorbed most of the increased costs in August. We still expect the Fed to resume quarterly 25bp cuts in September.

Download the Full Report!

Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold trades with modest gains; still below $4,200

Gold builds on Monday’s marginal bounce, although it struggles to reclaim the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes on the back of the fresh downside momentum in the US Dollar in tandem with retreating US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls battle to restart uptrend amid ETF outflows

Bitcoin upholds a robust bullish outlook, trading at $85,837 on Tuesday as sellers push to regain control over the trend. Altcoins, meanwhile, reflect Bitcoin’s ranging action, with Ethereum trading sideways above $2,700 and Ripple hovering around the pivotal $1.50 level.

Japanese Yen nears 158.00: Two analysts agree it's bullish, and disagree on how far the breakout goes

The JPY is drifting near 158.00 against the USD ahead of a busy week of Japanese data and a still-unclear BoJ timetable. The two most recent FXStreet analyses agree on the direction, but they disagree on the target and the mechanism.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.