GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound struggles near three-month lows ahead of Fed, BoE
- Pound Sterling consolidated near three-month lows against the US Dollar amid Middle East war.
- GBP/USD braces for a big central bank week while the Iran war remains the main focus.
- Technically, GBP/USD eyes more losses as long as the 200-day SMA resistance near 1.3450 holds.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remained vulnerable while in a bearish consolidation phase against the US Dollar (USD) below the 1.3500 threshold.
Pound Sterling bears rejoice over Middle East conflict
The USD clinched a second consecutive weekly gain against its major currency rivals, as it continued to benefit from the safe-haven flows infused by the escalating war in the Middle East.
Flight to safety remained the global theme as Iranian attacks intensified on the Gulf countries with the American bases. The United States (US) and Israel continued to bomb Tehran and Beirut, respectively, as the war deepened each passing day.
With no end in sight, Iran dug in deep, striking tankers and vessels in the Gulf waters and the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for the passage of about 20% of global oil supplies.
Some of the Gulf countries scaled back oil production, exacerbating supply disruption concerns and fueling tremendous volatility in Oil prices.
Saad Sherida Al‑Kaabi, Qatar's Energy Minister, told the Financial Times on Friday he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel.
The dramatic surge in oil prices stoked inflation and economic growth concerns worldwide, rattling markets and bolstering the Greenback’s appeal as a safe haven and as the world’s reserve currency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members’ strategic reserves, with the US’ share amounting to 172 million barrels. The move was intended to alleviate supply concerns and counter soaring energy prices.
US President Donald Trump offered some oil sanctions relief to Russia to slow the pace of the Oil price rally.
However, Oil prices retained their bullish potential after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his debut address that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” per CNBC News.
Markets dumped riskier assets such as global equities, the Pound Sterling, etc., amid heightened geopolitical tensions, rising Oil prices and petrodollar dynamics.
Against this backdrop, markets almost priced out a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, further boding well for the USD even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February came in line with estimates.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold rates at 3.75% next week, squashing bets for a rate hike amid higher inflation projections.The central bank’s likely wait-and-see stance and the UK activity data deepened the British Pound’s plight.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed no growth in January, coming in below a 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) increase expected. Industrial production fell 0.1% MoM in January 2026, defying the market forecast of a 0.2% rise while easing from a 0.9% decline in December.
Focus on Middle East crisis, Fed and BoE policy decisions
A blockbuster week awaits the Pound Sterling traders as the Fed and BoE monetary policy announcements could shift their attention temporarily away from the war in the Middle East.
However, markets will stay focused on the oil price action and the geopolitical headlines, scouting for hints on any path for de-escalation.
On the macro data front, the early part of the week is pretty quiet on both sides of the Atlantic until the announcement of the Fed interest rate policy and the quarterly updated projections on Wednesday.
The Fed’s Dot Plot chart and Chair Jerome Powell’s words will be closely scrutinized to help markets gauge the bank’s path forward on interest rates amid heightened geopolitical and economic risks.
On Thursday, the BoE’s rate call will drive the GBP markets ahead of Friday’s data-dry economic calendar. However, the Fed policymakers will return as the ‘blackout period’ draws to an end.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot extends its slide below the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which cap the upside near 1.35 and signal fading bullish control. Price also holds beneath the 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around 1.34, reinforcing a downside tilt within a softening broader trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped toward 32, approaching oversold territory and highlighting persistent selling pressure, though it also warns of scope for short-covering bounces.
Initial resistance emerges at the recent breakdown area near 1.3340, with stronger resistance at the 1.3400 region where the 100-day and 200-day SMAs form a key barrier. A recovery above that zone would ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward 1.3520, aligning with the 50-day SMA. On the downside, immediate support stands at 1.3200, followed by 1.3150, where a pause in the decline would be needed to prevent a deeper extension toward 1.3100. Sustained trading below 1.3200 would keep sellers in control of the daily outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
