GBP/USD: Quick guide to the five votes around delaying Brexit and how the pound may react

  • The UK Parliament votes on March 14th on a motion to ask for extending Article 50.
  • Here is the timetable and how the pound may move. Everything is prone to changes.
  • Some motions could be pulled. Speeches by PM May and others will have an additional impact.

Here goes:

1) 1700 Second referendum (could be pulled): Low chances of passing. GBP/USD set to ignore it if it is rejected by a broad margin. It can tick up if the margin is close and soar in the unlikely case it passes.

2) 1715 Indicative votes x 2: This would give Parliament control, thus pound positive. The chances of passing are medium. A loss would weigh on the pound and a win could push it higher. 

3) 1745 Labour deal: Medium chances of passing, and similar to the previous vote, could lift the pound if it passes and may hurt it if it fails. 

4) 1800 Rule another vote on PM’s deal: This one is more tricky but if it passes, it implies a lengthy extension and the pound could rise quite a bit

5) 1815 Main motion - delay Brexit: The main motion is set to pass. While this will create the main headline, its approval is priced in. In the shocking case it fails, the pound is set to crash. 

 

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