GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling loses traction on mixed BoE commentary
- GBP/USD edges lower toward 1.3500 in the European session on Tuesday.
- BoE policymakers testified on the monetary policy before the UK Treasury Select Committee.
- The technical outlook suggests that buyers struggle to retain control.
Following Monday's rally, GBP/USD loses traction and declines toward 1.3500 in the European session on Tuesday. The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum as investors await US data.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.35% | 0.25% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.58% | 0.52% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.35% | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.21% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | 0.06% | -0.12% | -0.15% | 0.31% | 0.32% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | 0.18% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.42% | 0.40% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.40% | 0.47% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.58% | -0.25% | -0.31% | -0.42% | -0.40% | 0.00% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.52% | -0.26% | -0.32% | -0.40% | -0.47% | -0.01% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.11% | -0.06% | 0.41% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
While testifying on the Monetary Policy Report before the UK Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey noted that they have not seen particular inflation surprises and reiterated that he prefers a gradual and careful approach to policy-easing.
BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra argued that an overly restrictive policy was risking suppressing demand and disincentivizing investment. Meanwhile, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann adopted a more cautious tone, saying that future policy decisions will require certainty that inflation is on track. "Services price inflation is above what I view as consistent with getting Consumer Price Index (CPI) back to target," Mann added.
Following these mixed remarks, GBP/USD finds it difficult to attract buyers.
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the JOLTS Job Openings data for April. A noticeable increase in this data, with a reading of 7.7 million or higher, could support the USD with the immediate reaction and cause GBP/USD to extend its correction. On the flip side, a disappointing reading below 7 million could hurt the USD and open the door for a rebound in the pair.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines toward 50, highlighting a loss of bullish momentum. The 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) form the first support level at 1.3500. In case GBP/USD falls below this level and starts using it as resistance, technical sellers could take action. In this scenario, 1.3410 (100-period SMA) and 1.3365 (200-period SMA) could be seen as next support levels.
On the upside, the first resistance level could be spotted at 1.3530 (mid-point of the ascending channel) ahead of 1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3700 (static level, round level).
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
