GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling looks vulnerable after soft inflation data
- GBP/USD trades near 1.2900 in the European session on Wednesday.
- Annual CPI inflation in the UK softened to 2.8% in February.
- Technical sellers could take action in case 1.2880 support fails.
GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Wednesday and trades at around 1.2900. The pair could stretch lower in case 1.2880 support area fails.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.53% | -0.73% | -0.81% | -0.43% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.21% | -0.90% | -1.03% | -0.58% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.21% | 0.41% | -1.31% | -0.84% | -0.37% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.53% | 0.21% | -0.41% | -1.24% | -1.34% | -0.91% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.73% | 0.90% | 1.31% | 1.24% | -0.02% | 0.31% | 0.79% | |
| AUD | 0.81% | 1.03% | 0.84% | 1.34% | 0.02% | 0.45% | 0.93% | |
| NZD | 0.43% | 0.58% | 0.37% | 0.91% | -0.31% | -0.45% | 0.55% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.47% | -0.79% | -0.93% | -0.55% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Pound Sterling weakens against its major rivals following the soft inflation readings from the UK.
The Office for National Statistics announced early Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in February. This reading followed the 3% increase recorded in January and came in below the market expectation of 2.9%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.5% in the same period, below analysts' estimate of 3.6%.
The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will publish its forecasts for the UK economy and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present the Spring budget on Wednesday.
Later in the day, February Durable Goods Orders data will be featured in the US economic docket. A significant negative surprise could weigh on the USD and help GBP/USD stage a rebound.
During the American trading hours, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches as well.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) form a key support at 1.2880. In case GBP/USD falls below this level and fails to reclaim it, 1.2800 (200-day SMA) could be seen as the next bearish target.
On the upside, 1.2960 (50-period SMA) aligns as first resistance level before 1.3000 (static level, round level) and 1.3020 (mid-point of the ascending channel).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
