GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling extends rally on broad USD weakness
- GBP/USD builds on last week's gains, rises toward 1.3200.
- Pound Sterling benefits from improving risk mood and persistent USD weakness.
- The technical picture points to overbought conditions for the pair.
After rising nearly 1% on Friday and ending the previous week with a 1.5% gain, GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum on Monday and trades above 1.3150. The pair's near-term technical outlook points to overbought conditions but investors could refrain from betting on a deep correction, given the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
British Pound PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -3.76% | -2.17% | -1.82% | -2.98% | -4.70% | -5.20% | -4.50% | |
| EUR | 3.76% | 1.94% | 2.64% | 1.44% | -1.03% | -0.86% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 2.17% | -1.94% | -0.60% | -0.49% | -2.92% | -2.77% | -2.06% | |
| JPY | 1.82% | -2.64% | 0.60% | -1.14% | -1.98% | -2.23% | -2.38% | |
| CAD | 2.98% | -1.44% | 0.49% | 1.14% | -2.11% | -2.29% | -1.84% | |
| AUD | 4.70% | 1.03% | 2.92% | 1.98% | 2.11% | 0.15% | 0.89% | |
| NZD | 5.20% | 0.86% | 2.77% | 2.23% | 2.29% | -0.15% | 0.73% | |
| CHF | 4.50% | 0.16% | 2.06% | 2.38% | 1.84% | -0.89% | -0.73% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The USD Index, which tracks the USD's valuation against a basket of six major currencies, lost 3% last week as the deepening US-China trade conflict fed into fears over an economic downturn in the US.
Late Friday, US President Donald Trump's administration granted some technology imports, including smartphones, computers, laptops and disc drives, exemptions from the steep 125% additional tariffs imposed on China. Trump clarified over the weekend that these products will still face the 20% existing tariffs, which were imposed initially because of the fentanyl crisis in the US. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that technology imports, alongside semiconductors, will face separate new levies within the next two months.
This development helped the USD find a foothold at the beginning of the week but its positive impact on the currency remained short-lived.
In the meantime, US stock index futures decisively higher on Monday, with Nasdaq Futures rising nearly 2% on the day.
In the absence of high-impact data releases, the risk mood could continue to drive GBP/USD's action. A bullish action in Wall Street after the opening bell could help the pair hold its ground. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the employment report for February.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rises toward 80, reflecting overbought conditions for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD could face immediate resistance at 1.3200 (static level) ahead of 1.3270 (static level) and 1.3300 (round level). On the downside, first support could be spotted at 1.3150 (static level) before 1.3100 (round level, static level) and 1.3040 (static level).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
