GBP/USD Forecast: Pound look unstoppable as opposition unleashes the upside – levels

  • GBP/USD has surged some 300 pips from the lows and more may be in store. 
  • Lower chances of a no-deal Brexit boost the pound.
  • Further febrile political developments and US data are set to dominate trading.
  • Thursday's four-hour chart is showing that GBP/USD is breaking critical resistance.

The pound has been on the run  – perhaps like a "chlorinated chicken" – to the upside after the House of Common approved a bill that will prevent a no-deal Brexit. The legislation will likely be approved by the House of Lords on Friday and become law by Royal Assent on Monday. Opposition parties have remained united and determined – and markets like it. The diminishing prospects of the UK leaving the EU without an accord have already sent GBP/USD 300 pips off the lows.

The "chlorinated chicken" in question is what prime minister Boris Johnson called Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for the latter's refusal to back a bill for new elections. Johnson accused Corbyn of being afraid to lose an election – chickening out. Parties in opposition usually jump at opportunities to seize power The opposition leader and his peers said that they mistrust the PM and first want to pass their no-deal blocking bill. According to British law, the PM can change the election date after parliament approves new elections. Johnson may use this legal quirk to move the election date beyond October 31 – Brexit day – thus forcing a hard exit and undermining the opposition's efforts.

The government offered elections on October 15, two days ahead of a summit of EU leaders and 16 days ahead of the Brexit deadline. Labour is internally discussing the date – before or after October 31 – while campaigning is practically underway. Johnson is set to deliver a speech outside London later – seen by many as the launch of his election bid.

While UK politics are lively and colorful, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier has reportedly told diplomats that "Brexit talks are in a state of paralysis." The French statesman's comments followed a six-hour meeting between David Frost, a special envoy for Johnson, with his EU counterparts. His words help convince Tory rebels that the PM was ingenuine in promising a new deal.

US data eyed

On Wednesday, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector slipped below expectations with 50.6 points – but held up above 50 – thus representing growth in Britain's largest sector. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said that the damage to the economy under the worst-case scenario has improved – a drop of only 5.5% in output against 8% in a previous report. Nevertheless, if the forecast materializes, remains devastating. 

The focus shifts to US data. ADP's Non-Farm Payrolls figures for July serve as a hint toward Friday's official jobs report. A moderate increase similar to July 156K gain is projected for August. Later, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is a forward-looking indicator for America's services sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 49.1 – the worst since 2016 and reflecting a contraction in the sector. 

Top US and Chinese officials held a phone conversation late on Wednesday and agreed to meet in October. Both sides expressed optimism and sent stocks higher. Nevertheless, it is unclear if yet another round of talks may result in an accord – nor stopping the next tariffs planned by President Donald Trump.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP USD technical analysis September 5 2019

The four-hour chart is showing that GBP/USD is battling 1.2310 – August's high that is critical resistance. If the break is confirmed, the next resistance line is 1.2380 – a support line from mid-July. The next cap is 1.2420 that held it up in late-July. Further above, 1.2480 was another support line and 1.2520 was a double top around the same time.

Support awaits at 1.2275, which was a resistance line in mid-July. Lower, 1.2230 capped GBP/USD in late August. Next, we find 1.2200, which provided support in late August, followed by 1.2150, 1.2110, and 1.2065.

Momentum remains positive while the Relative Strength Index is on the verge of crossing 70 – entering overbought conditions. That may imply a correction before the next move higher. GBP/USD has broken above the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages – another bullish sign.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizing as US coronavirus cases continue to climb

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1250, pressured amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus in the US. Traders are digesting the upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls figures already out ahead of the long US weekend. 


GBP/USD attempting a bounce amid thin liquidity

GBP/USD is closer to 1.25, off the lows. Top-level EU-UK Brexit talks have been postponed until next week amid disagreements. The UK is continuing to reopen while US coronavirus cases are surging. 


Bitcoin must endorse the time of Ethereum has come

The crypto market remains in a choke point, and after signs of a possible upward shift yesterday, the market was once again disappointed to see Bitcoin in the low range of the $8900 to $9000 choke point.

Read more

Gold: There is a bearish signal on the 4-hour chart

Price action has been slow on Friday due to the bank holiday in the US as the nation celebrates independence day. This week has been an interesting one as there has been some good economic data but some very bad coronavirus news in the US. 

Gold News

S&P 500: Futures struggle to refresh two-week top

S&P 500 Futures prints mild loss of 0.10% while declining to 3,126 during the initial hour of Tokyo session on Friday. In doing so, the risk barometer fails to extend the previous four-day winning streak.

Read more

Forex Majors