GBP/USD forecast: Consolidates in a familiar trading range, below 1.2370-80 supply zone


  • The incoming positive Brexit-related headlines continue to attract dip-buying interest.
  • The USD price dynamics does little to influence the price action amid Brexit optimism.
  • Traders now look forward to the US monthly retail sales data for a short-term impetus.

The GBP/USD pair witnessed some intraday pullback on Thursday but remained well within this week's familiar trading range. With investors looking past the latest Brexit-related optimism, a strong intraday pickup in the US Dollar demand - primarily on the back of the post-ECB slump in the shared currency - turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the major. Meanwhile, Thursday's unimpressive US consumer inflation figures, though remained supportive of the intraday USD upsurge, did little to influence the price action or provide any meaningful impetus.

Brexit optimism continues to lend support

The downtick, however, remained limited and was quickly bought into near 50-day SMA support around the 1.2285-80 region after the US President Donald Trump accused the Fed for not doing enough to support the US economy. The pair climbed back closer to multi-week tops but lacked any strong follow-through and once again failed to near the 1.2370-80 supply zone. The pair finally ended the day nearly unchanged, forming a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart.

Following a rather directionless trading action on Thursday, the pair managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week on news indicating that the EU was preparing to grant another extension to the UK to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The pair climbed back above mid-1.2300s and in absence of any major market-moving UK economic releases, remains at the mercy of the incoming Brexit-related headlines. Later during the early North-American session, the US economic docket - highlighting the release of monthly retail sales data - will further be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities.

Short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much for the pair except that the 1.2370-80 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle and a subsequent move beyond the 1.2400 round figure mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Above the said handle, resistance is pegged near the 1.2435-40 region, which if cleared will set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the key 1.2500 psychological mark.
 
On the flip side, the 1.2300 round figure mark might continue to protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by 50-day SMA support near the 1.2285-80 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support levels might accelerate the slide further, though is likely to attract some fresh dip-buying interest near a short-term descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, now turned support near the 1.2200 region.

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