GBP/USD bullish bias intact after CPI

Zorrays Junaid Alchemy Markets

CPI data keeps USD under pressure

Today’s US CPI release came in line with market forecasts, confirming that inflation is easing but without any major surprises. For the dollar, this result maintains the broader narrative of a softening macro backdrop—where growth momentum is cooling and rate cut expectations remain anchored.

From the UK side, inflation is still proving “sticky,” which has slowed the Bank of England’s path to easing compared to the Fed. This divergence continues to favor the pound over the dollar in the medium term.

The result? No major shifts in policy expectations today, but the underlying theme remains intact: softer US data versus persistent UK inflation equals relative GBP strength.

Technical view – Channel breakout, flag consolidation

On the 4H chart, GBPUSD has already broken free from its larger descending channel, marking a significant shift in momentum. This breakout was accompanied by a strong impulse leg higher, suggesting that buyers are firmly in control for now.

Since then, price action has entered a smaller flag pattern, which is acting as a corrective pause before potential continuation. As long as the pair holds above the 1.3480–1.3500 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact.

The key technical trigger to watch will be a breakout above the flag’s upper boundary. A clean move higher should open the path towards 1.3600 and 1.3660 as the next resistance zones.

Author

Zorrays Junaid

Alchemy Markets

Zorrays Junaid has extensive combined experience in the financial markets as a portfolio manager and trading coach. More recently, he is an Analyst with Alchemy Markets, and has contributed to DailyFX and Elliott Wave Forecast in the past.

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