|

GBP/USD analysis: holding within familiar levels, but risk of a bearish breakout increased

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3509

  • UK employment data failed to impress, GBP/USD extended yearly slump.
  • Dollar favored by soaring yields and interest rates' differentials.

The GBP/USD pair fell this Tuesday to 1.3450, surpassing its January's low by a few pips before bouncing some. UK employment data was mixed, as the unemployment rate remained steady as expected at 4.2% in the three months to March, while wages' growth also met forecasts. The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits, however, rose sharply in April, up 31.2K against market's expectations of 7.8K. The positive wages' growth, however, fell short of indicating inflationary pressures, therefore not enough to change the BOE's outlook on interest rates. The UK macroeconomic calendar has nothing to offer this Wednesday. Despite the lower low for the year, the GBP/USD pair managed to bounce back to settle around the 1.3500 level, still within familiar levels. Technically, and considering resurgent dollar's demand, the risk is leaned to the downside, given that in the 4 hours chart, the pair is developing below a still horizontal 20 SMA, while technical indicators are posting modest bounces within bearish territory. Speculative interest is at this point not sure whether to push the greenback higher or not but keeps it near recent highs, somehow favoring a dollar continuation rally on the back of interest rates´ differentials.

Support levels: 1.3550 1.3500 1.3460  

Resistance levels: 1.3610 1.3660 1.3700

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD turns positive, targets 1.1450

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances toward the 1.1440 region on Friday, up modestly for the day. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold remains offered, still below $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and navigates below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.