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G7 in the rockies, relevance in the rearview

The G7 rolled into Kananaskis this week like a well-dressed pit crew trying to steer a Formula One car with a 1980s manual. Yes, the scenery—snow-capped Rockies and alpine serenity—offered a postcard backdrop, but beneath the polite handshakes and joint communiqués, one thing was crystal clear: this summit doesn’t reflect the engine room of the global economy anymore.

Leaders from the world’s richest old-guard economies gathered for the 51st G7 Summit from June 16 to 17, with tariffs, inflation, Middle East chaos, and Ukraine all on the docket. U.S. President Donald Trump made his appearance, breaking bread with host Canadian PM Mark Carney and Britain’s Keir Starmer before putting Iran squarely in the G7’s crosshairs as “the principal source of regional instability and terror”—then exiting stage right Monday night after signing off on a call for peace. Classic Trump. Hit the headline, then leave the table.

But as Statista’s Felix Richter lays out, the G7’s claim to global leadership is starting to look more like nostalgia than necessity. The group may still drive headlines, but it’s no longer the majority shareholder in global output. Back in the day, G7 nations commanded over 50% of global GDP (at PPP). Today? Just 28%. In population terms, the bloc represents less than 10% of the planet’s people. That’s not leadership—that’s legacy.

Enter Jim O’Neill and Alessio Terzi, who were ahead of the curve in 2018 when they wrote that the G7 “in its current formulation, no longer has a reason to exist, and it should be replaced with a more representative group of countries.” Their solution? They called for a revised G7 group that would replace Germany, France, and Italy with a single Eurozone seat, replace Canada with Brazil, and—most critically—bring China and India into the fold. Not for charity or diversity box-ticking, but because that's where the economic gravity is. The idea was straightforward: keep the table tight, but ensure the right players are actually in the room.

Because let’s be honest—how long can a bloc claiming to lead the global economy keep ignoring the economies where growth, trade flow, and demographic heft actually reside? The current G7 is like a vintage trading floor—full of swagger, but trading on past glories while the real action has moved to the algos.

And yet, the old crew keeps talking shop as if nothing’s changed. Many would suggest that the G-7 is a manageable steering group of the West, embodying common values and a similar rules-based approach to world order. That’s fair, but the world doesn’t just need a rules referee. It needs a table where the biggest players, by trade flows and population weight, actually have a seat.

In trader terms, the G7 still has brand equity—but the market is pricing in diminishing relevance. If you want to front-run the next global consensus, don’t look to the Western echo chamber. The real dealflow is happening in places like Delhi, São Paulo, and Beijing. Time to bring the big pipes to the table and let the small caps play second fiddle.

The G7 isn't obsolete—but if it wants to lead, it has to stop pretending the world is still running on a Cold War blueprint and start trading the future as it is, not as it once was.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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