G10 central banks don't deliver any big holiday surprises

Summary

• It was an active day for G10 central banks, with four institutions announcing monetary policy decisions today. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its policy rate at 0.25%, as expected, although its accompanying comments were less hawkish than expected. Governor Ueda said more information is needed on wage increases to hike rates, and cited uncertainties around U.S. economic policy. That said, we think the fundamental case for BoJ policy normalization remains intact, and continue to expect 25 bps rate hikes in January and April.

• The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy rate at 4.75%, although the 6-3 vote split to hold rates steady was perhaps a bit closer than expected, and the BoE also indicated that economic growth has softened. At the same time, the BoE noted recent higher inflation readings and said a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. Our base case remains for the BoE to lower interest rates at a 25 bps per meeting pace through early 2026, although the risk of a steadier pace of easing has risen to some extent.

• The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50% and signaled a more gradual approach going forward given the lagged effects of monetary policy and the magnitude of easing the central bank has delivered so far this year. Officials lifted their inflation forecasts in the near-term slightly and reduced the GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. We have adjusted our forecast to look for two more 25 bps rate cuts in 2025, once per quarter in the first half of the year, to reach a policy rate of 2.00%.

• The Norges Bank held its policy rate steady at 4.50% at today's monetary policy announcement, but also signaled that monetary policy easing should begin in early 2025. The central bank said that economic activity is holding up better than expected and at the same time, said inflation has moved closer to target, and that inflation pressures have been slightly more subdued than previously assumed. We forecast an initial Norges Bank 25 bps rate cut in March.

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