TRENDING:

Trade War

XAU/USD

FX Weekly: EUR/USD, AUD, GBP, CAD, NZD, EM

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

Best trades this week are found in USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. USD Vs Non USD are the drivers this week to cross pairs and the same story as last week.

USD/CHF begins the week massive overbought however no hurry this week to trade CHF cross pairs as in AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, EUR/CHF, CAD/CHF, GBP/CHF and GBP/CHF. CHF cross pairs are off kilter to USD V Non USD counterparts. No need to chase CHF cross pairs as many good trades exist.

Many good trades exist and the same story as last week.

USD/CAD begins the week overbought and the same situation as last week. While both USD/CHF and USD/CAD begin the week overbought, USD/JPY maintains a neutral position as was the case last week. From USD/CAD and USD/CHF overbought, USD/JPY maintains 3rd position as neutral. Weekly, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY maintains best 2 out of 3. The weekly struggle is USD/JPY and USD/CHF while USD/CAD is a far better currency to trade and is rarely off kilter to USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

Oversold JPY cross pairs are positioned as next in line to the 18 currency pair weekly rankings due to USD/JPY neutrality. JPY cross pairs include oversold CHF/JPY. Last week, CHF/JPY achieved 5 month lows at 117.92 and is inching ever so slowly to the 115.66 target from June's 122.00 highs. CHF/JPY targets 118.92.

No hurry to trade NZD/JPY as this pair is last in the JPY cross pair rankings. While NZD/USD is oversold, the overall NZD universe contains problems and heading into week 2 to range and cross pair problems. Nothin special this week to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. Better trades and easier money exist than to chase a problem currency.

EUR/GBP sits fairly neutral to begin the week. Recall last week's target 0.8571 achieved 0.8561. Like USD/JPY and USD/CHF, EUR/GBP isn't worth trade time or trouble.

CAD/EM

Most compliant in the EM space is long CAD/EM except overbought CAD/TRY. Longs work for many pips as CAD/CNY, CAD/DKK, CAD/IDR, CAD/INR, CAD/MXN, dubbed the NAFTA cross. Next, CAD/RUB from 57.05 targets 57.92. Then CAD/SGD.

EUR/EM Vs USD/EM

USD/EM across the board is deeply overbought however not all USD/EM currencies work as viable trades due to overbought USD/EM matches to overbought EUR/EM. This overbought and overbought situation wont' work well.

Best USD/EM shorts work as USD/CZK, USD/CNY, USD/DKK, USD/HRK and USD/RON.

Best EUR/EM Long trades are found in EUR/CNY, EUR/MYR and EUR/INR. Remainder EUR/EM currencies it deeply overbought.

Big problem currencies in EM are PLN, KRW, ZAR.

AUD/EM

Best long trades are as follows: AUD/CNY, AUD/DKK, AUD/IDR, AUD/MYR and AUD/SGD.

Weekly Trade USD/CAD

Short Anywhere or 1.2769 to target 1.2629. Next from kindness and competence is offered the price path.

Must cross 1.2747, 1.2726, 1.2705, 1.2684, 1.2663, 1.2642 and 1.2621.

2nd Leg

Short below 1.2576 to target 1.1512.

3rd Leg

Long 1.2512 to target 1.2555.

4th Leg

Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold down but not out as focus shifts to more US data

Gold is back in the red near $5,050 early Thursday, having faced strong offers at around the $5,100 mark once again. Buyers keep a close eye on the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and US-Iran geopolitical developments to regain control.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.