From liquidity sweeps to super-cycle hopes: Oil’s mixed path forward

Crude oil has entered a corrective phase after retreating from the recent $65.00 high, currently consolidating near $63.90. Technical signals across Elliott Wave, Gann pivots, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) highlight a favorable dip-buying zone around $62.50–63.10, with potential targets toward $67.60 and even $70.20 under bullish momentum. At the same time, quantitative indicators such as gamma pinning around $64–65 suggest short-term chop before a breakout, while astro-cycle alignments point to heightened volatility but also accumulation ahead of the next impulsive leg higher. This convergence of technical and cyclical factors provides a strong tactical roadmap for traders, but fundamental risks remain significant.

Current Price Zone: ~63.90 after retracing from ~65.00 high.

• Support (Buy Dips)
  • 62.45 – 63.10 → demand zone / bullish order block.
  • 61.80 → strong support (lower band, Gann pivot).
• Resistance (Sell Zones)
  • 65.80 – 66.00 → recent supply.
  • 70.20 → cyclical & Gamma exhaustion (sell area).
• Signals
  •  inducement: dips ~62.50–63.10 statistically favorable.
  • Gamma pinning 64–65 → short-term chop until breakout >66.
  • Wave structure: corrective pullback; impulsive rally projection → 67.60.

Gann + Astro

• Gann 45° support line: ~63.00.
• Astro cycles: Mars–Mercury window = short-term volatility; accumulation phase precedes next leg higher.

 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)

• Liquidity sweep: Stops cleared below 63.50 → liquidity taken.
• FVG gap: 64.20–64.50 likely to be revisited.
• Bullish OB: 62.80–63.10 = optimal dip-buy zone.

 Fundamental Insight & News

• Supply Glut Risk: EIA projects oversupply through 2026; futures show unusual "smile" (front backwardation, longer contango).
• Macro Signal (Oil vs Gold): Oil underperforming gold sharply; WTI/gold ratio at lows = macro caution, but historically aligns with strong equity markets.
• U.S. Production: Record ~13.6m bpd expected late 2025 → bearish near-term.
• Forecast
  • EIA: Brent ~$58 in Q1 2026, dipping toward $52 in  4^th Q 2026.
  • JPMorgan: Brent ~$66 in 2025, ~$58 in 2026.
  • Rystad: Long-term supply underinvestment may trigger post-2030 oil super-cycle.

 Suggested Trading Plan

• Buy zones: 62.45–63.10 (scale in).
  • Target 1: 65.80–66.00
  • Target 2: 67.60 (main swing target).
• Final Target: ~70.20 (cycle + Gamma exhaustion).
• Stop-loss: Below 61.75 (setup invalidated).

Strategy – Buy dips, hold core for 67.60, partial profit near 70.20.

• Short–Medium Term (to 2026): Pressure from oversupply + strong U.S. output; rallies capped unless OPEC+ intervenes.
• Seasonal Play: December lows could align with cyclical bottom → opportunity for accumulation.
• Mid–Long Term (Post-2026): Under-investment in supply may lead to renewed super-cycle.
• Macro Interplay: Ultra-low oil/gold ratio shows caution, but historically sets stage for future rebound.

While the technical and SMC framework strongly favors accumulation on dips near $62.50–63.10 with upside targets extending toward $70.20, the broader macro backdrop highlights persistent oversupply pressures from record U.S. output and bearish EIA forecasts into 2026.

This creates a dual narrative, near-term rallies may remain capped without OPEC+ intervention, yet structural underinvestment in global supply points to a potential post-2026 oil super-cycle. For now, the integrated outlook suggests to position with tactical long entries on technical confluence zones while maintaining caution on fundamentals, with December’s seasonal cycle bottom potentially offering the best opportunity for accumulation before the next major leg higher.