Friedrich Merz loses vote and is not yet the German Chancellor

ING Global Economics Team ING Economic and Financial Analysis

You have to wait, Mein Herr! Friedrich Merz just lost the vote in parliament to be confirmed as the next German Chancellor. The only thing that is clear is that there won’t be another chance today.

It was supposed to be the start of a new beginning, but it turned out to be a day of big frustration. The designated next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, just lost the vote in parliament, coming short by six votes, and will not become the next chancellor today. The incoming German government has a majority of 12 seats in the new parliament, and few really doubted that Merz would get the necessary votes today. The voting is done in secret, and we don’t know whether it was CDU/CSU or SPD voters opposing him. In any case, the failure is a clear sign that either some CDU/CSU politicians still grumble about Merz’s fiscal u-turn or some SPD politicians wanted to voice their dissatisfaction with the SPD’s designated ministers. Or it was a combination of both.

In any case, the failed vote is a disaster and the first time in German history that a designated chancellor doesn’t get the required votes. So what’s next? There won’t be a ‘normal’ second round. Instead, parliament will now have 14 days to organise a new vote. Interestingly, within this period, new candidates could be brought forward. If no one gets a majority within these 14 days, there will be a final vote in which a relative majority would suffice, or the federal president could then decide to have new elections.

Needless to say, the new government is off to a very difficult start. We still think that eventually, Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor. However, today’s events show that not everyone seems to have understood the sense of urgency and the need to have a functioning government. They also show that the hope that the designated next German government will be able to push ahead quickly with investments and reforms has been shattered.

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ING Global Economics Team

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

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