Market movers today
-
Today is another quiet day in terms of major economic data releases.
-
In the US today, we are due to get the final figures from the University of Michigan in February. Although the preliminary figure suggests that the index has fallen a bit in February, it remains well above the historical average. Optimistic consumers tend to spend more and hence the high consumer confidence is a good sign for economic growth.
-
In Sweden today, we are due to get business and consumer confidence data from the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER), which is interesting but, alas, not as good an indicator for the Swedish economy as it once was.
Selected market news
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he will explore issuing ultra-long debt, i.e. debt maturing in more than 30 years, in line with previous comments that he will ‘take a look at everything' when it comes to maturities. With interest rates expected to be historically low for a long period of time, it ‘makes sense' for the US Treasury to explore 50- and 100-year maturities, he said in a CNBC interview. While the Federal Reserve has signalled that interest rates may go up this year (currently the markets have priced in approximately two hikes this year), it is ‘really about where we are not relative to just today but where we are relative to interest rates over a long period of time', he said. However, so far, the US Treasury has been reluctant to issue debt with maturity longer than the current maximum of 30 years, perhaps as one of the previous administration's goals was to keep issuance regular and predictable. Though the market's reactions were quite modest, the US government benchmark 2Y30Y bond yields steepened some few basis points after Mnuchin's comments. In addition, Mnuchin signalled that it is too early to judge China as a currency manipulator and that he wants to have a process within the US Treasury looking at currency manipulators across the board.
French government bonds, in particular bonds with maturities less than 10 years, continued to perform relative to Germany yesterday on the back of the increased Oddschecker implied probability indicator of Emmanuel Macron winning the French Presidential Election as the centrist politician François Bayrou offered to form an alliance on Wednesday. However, there is a long time to the first round (23 April) and even longer to the second round (7 May), so it is likely to be only a ‘bump' in the road. 23 February, where we lay out our take on the market implications if Le Pen wins, with a particular focus on euro and Nordic markets. We focus on the immediate market implications following a Le Pen win. However, we do not look at the market implications of a ‘Frexit', which would require a separate analysis.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends losses on dovish remarks from ECB members, trades near 1.0780
EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a stronger US Dollar influenced by the hawkish market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid quiet session
The GBP/USD pair trades sideways around 1.2622 during the early Friday. The market is likely to be mute in light trading on Good Friday. Later in the day, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released.
Gold ends Q1 2024 at record highs, what’s next?
Gold is sitting at an all-time high of $2,236, lacking a trading impetus amid holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. Most major world markets, including the United States are closed in observance of Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued.
Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP
Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days. As this coiling up comes undone, investors can expect XRP to kickstart a massive rally.
US core PCE inflation set to ease in February on month as Federal Reserve rate cut bets for June mount
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.