French and German inflation data released today

In focus today

In the euro area, final December services and composite PMIs are released today, with the composite measure likely being revised down as the final manufacturing print was revised lower to 48.8 from 49.2. Focus also turns to the German and French December inflation data that we receive ahead of the euro area release. The Spanish HICP inflation revealed last week came in as expected falling to 3.0% y/y from 3.2% y/y so French and German inflation is also likely to come in as expected.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the US, December ISM manufacturing fell slightly to 47.9 (cons: 48.4) from 48.2 in November. While tariffs continue to weigh on trade, with weak export orders and imports, the order-inventory balance improved again, signalling positive prospects for future output. Price and employment indices remained largely unchanged.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari was on the wire saying inflation is slowly trending down, but risks remain of a sudden jump in the unemployment rate. Kashkari noted that while monetary policy is likely close to neutral, more data is needed to determine whether inflation or labour market trends will drive future policy adjustments. The comment comes ahead of the release of the US Jobs Report for December on Friday. Kashkari was among the more hawkish FOMC participants last year, and he is a new voter for 2026.

In geopolitics, markets reacted calmly on Monday to the US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, with Asian stocks rising, oil prices gaining modestly, and gold benefiting from safe-haven flows. Maduro, who appeared in a US federal court on Monday, pleaded not guilty to charges of drug trafficking and other crimes, while Russia and China condemned the raid as a violation of international law. Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, initially denounced the US operation as a colonial oil-grab but later shifted her stance, signalling potential cooperation with Washington on oil production and regional stability. Global markets generally performed well on Monday, but President Trump's threats against Colombia and Mexico, along with renewed talk of annexing Greenland, underscore that geopolitical tensions remain elevated as the new year begins.

In pharma, Novo Nordisk appears to be launching a weight-loss pill price war with the introduction of its Wegovy pill. The pill is priced at USD 149 per month for self-paying patients, with insured patients paying as little as USD 25 per month. Higher doses are available at USD 299, offering a more flexible alternative to injectable treatments. Shares of Novo Nordisk rose 5% in Monday's trade as the company seeks to regain ground in the competitive obesity drug market. Rival Eli Lilly plans to launch its own weight-loss pill by March, further intensifying competition in the sector.

Equities: Global equities extended their gains yesterday, rounding off what has been a strong start to 2026, even though we are only a few trading days into the year. What stood out was a clear cyclical rotation, though once again not led by tech. Instead, leadership came from materials, industrials and financials. In contrast, several defensive sectors finished the day in negative territory, including utilities, healthcare and consumer staples. Taken together, this points to a pronounced risk-on tone and, from an equity investor perspective, virtually no fear premium linked to the latest geopolitical escalation around Venezuela. It goes without saying, the above fits our strategy extremely well. In the US yesterday, Dow +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.7%, and Russell 2000 +1.6%. Same pattern is visible this morning in Asia, where South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are all up more than 1%. Equity futures are marginally higher across both Europe and the US.

FI and FX: The USD initially among stronger currencies as the market was buying both US stocks and bonds but retraced that move on a weak ISM manufacturing print. Consequently, EUR/USD made a brief tour below 1.17, while the 10Y US yield fell to 4.16%. USD funding conditions in the XCCY basis market has eased significantly after the Fed started growing its balance sheet again and easier bank capital rules in the US kick in. The oil market was steady yesterday as the market digested the events in Venezuela over the weekend. Scandies benefitted from strong risk sentiment with EUR/SEK falling below 10.80 and EUR/NOK below 11.80.