French 30-year bond yield exceeds the Italian yield

Since the inception of the common currency the yield on 30-year French bonds has consistently been lower than that of 30-year Italian bonds.

Yield on 30-year French bonds started rising sharply since the Russian - Ukrainian conflict.

It went up from around 1.04% in February 2022 to around 4.42% in December 2025.

Its price decreased from around 87.95 to 81.50 in less than four years.

Chart below shows "crossover" where the French 30-year bond yield exceeds the Italian yield.

Debt-to-GDP: This is despite Italy having a higher debt-to-GDP ratio (around 135%) compared to France (around 115%).

I believe that shift or crossover of French 30-year bond yield compared to Italian 30-year

bond yield, is a warning sign, telling that markets are starting to price risk in a more proper way, following the French government political and fiscal turmoil.

French 10-year bond is trading currently around 3.50%, last time it reached that level was about 14 years ago!

With bond yields rising across the curve, that will lead to higher pressure to issue more short-term debt.

Higher bond yields always lead to debt traps.

From a fundamental perspective that increase in bond yields across the curve will affect the EURO negatively. Its purchasing power will head south.