Forecasting the week ahead: Focus remains on US data and ECB speakers

The US Dollar (USD) finished the week with modest gains of 0.89% yet reached six-month highs of 100.39. Nonfarm Payroll figures, Federal Reserve speakers and fears of a possible bubble linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technological stocks, kept the Dollar bid and pushed two of the major US equity indices to post weekly losses between 2% to 3.20%. Also, the minutes of the October’s Fed meeting hinted the division between FOMC members, keeping the December 9-10 meeting live.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value versus six currencies, is poised to end the week above the 100.00 threshold. The reopening of the US government would keep data flowing to the financial markets, with traders eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index for September on November 25, alongside Retail Sales and the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence. On November 26, traders would digest Durable Goods Orders for September and crucial Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 22, ahead of Thanksgiving. This along with Federal Reserve speakers crossing the wires ahead of the blackout period beginning on November 29, could dictate the fate of the markets.

EUR/USD refreshed two-week lows, treading water at around 1.1500, registering five consecutive trading days of losses. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany and ECB’s President Lagarde speech are due on November 24, followed by Consumer Confidence in France and Spain on November 25. Lagarde would hit the wires the following day. On November 27, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales on November 28.

Cable ended the week on a depressing tone, down over 0.60% near two-week lows beneath the 1.3100 figure. Market Participants are waiting for the Autumn Budget on November 26, and Nationwide Housing Prices for November, would be released on Friday 28 ahead of the weekend.

The newest government in Japan is beginning to feel the financial markets strength, yet the Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama threatened to intervene in the FX markets if the USD/JPY fails to trade supported by fundamentals. At the end the USD/JPY ended the week up by more than 1%. Bank of Japan Noguchi would cross the wires on November 26, while traders would eye the release of the Tokyo CPI. On November 26 the Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production figures and Retail Sales would update the economic outlook for the economy.

AUD/USD finished the week down over 1.23% as risk appetite deteriorated sponsored by NVDIA’s earnings report, and hawkish comment by Fed officials. Market players would eye the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on November 25, followed by the ANZ Business Confidence on November 26.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

·         ECB’s Mario Cipollone, Elderson Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel, speak on November 24.

·         The ECB’s Sleijpen and Cipollone hit the wires on November 25.

·         The ECB’s Philip Lane and Christine Lagarde would take the stand on November 26.

·         The ECB’s Cipollone, Bank of England’s (BoE) Greene will grab the headlines by November 27, closing the week on November r28 with ECB’s Joachim Nagel.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

·         The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets on November 26, followed by the press conference of the RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby, who would finish his term on November 30, succeeded by Dr. Anna Breman.