Forecasting the upcoming week: US PCE, Fedspeak and PMIs in the spotlight

The Greenback managed to reverse course in the latter part of the week on the back of the widespread selling pressure in the risk complex, always amid persistent tariff concerns and further repricing of the Fed’s interest rate path.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) set aside two weekly drops ina row and advanced modestly, regaining the 104.00 barrier and beyond despite the generalised decline in US yields across the curve. The Chigago Fed National Acitivity Index is due on March 24, seconded by the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge takes centres stage on March 25, followed by New Home Sales, the FHFA’s House Price Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications, and Durable Goods Orders wil be released on March 26 followed by the EIA’s weekly repor on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Pending Home Sales, and the advanced Goods Trade Balance results are due on March 27. The publication of the PCE will be at the cenre of the debate, followed by Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading.

EUR/USD closed the week in the red, reversing two consecutive advances depite hitting fresh 2025 peaks past the 1.0950 level. The release of the flash HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI in Germany and the broader Euroland will be released on March 24. Germany’s IFO Business Climate is due on March 25, while the ECB’s M3 Money Supply and the Europen Commission Forecasts will come on March 27. Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence and the labour market report are due on March 28, ahead of the EMU’s Economic Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, and Consumer Inflation Expectations.

In line with the rest of the risk-related peers, GBP/USD lost momentum and closed the week with modest losses after two advances in a row. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will kickstart the weekly calendar on March 24. The CBI Distributive Trades will be released on March 25, followed by the key Inflation Rate and the Spring Economic Statement on March 26. Retail Sales, Current Account, Goods Trade Balance, Business Investment and the final Q4 GDP Growth Rate are all due on March 28.

Despite failing to extend the recovery past the 150.00 barrier, USD/JPY managed to clinch its second straight week of gains. The advanced Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on March 24, while the BoJ will publish its Minutes on March 25. The final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index are expected on March 26, and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due on March 27. The BoJ Summary of Opinions, the Tokyo Inflation Rate, Housing Starts, and Construction Orders are all due on March 28.

AUD/USD closed the week with marked losses despite climbing to as high as the proximity of the 0.6400 region. The 2025-26 Federal Budget will be released on March 25, while the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator will come on March 26.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Bostic and Barr will speak on March 24, along with the BoE’s Bailey.
• The RBA’s Jone speaks on March 25, seconded by the Fed’s Kugler and Williams, and the ECB’s Nagel.
• The Fed’s Kashkari and Musalem speak on March 26, followed by the ECB’s Cipollone.
• The ECB’s Buch, De Guindos, Lagarde and Schnabel are due to speak on March 27, seconded by the BoE’s Dhingra, and the Fed’s Barkin.
• The Fed’s Barr and Bostic will speak on March 28.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The MNB will meet on March 25 (6.50% exp, unch)
• The Norges Bank (4.50% exp, unch), and Banxico (9.50% exp, unch) will decide on rates on March 27.