Forecasting the upcoming week: US Payrolls and flash CPIs in Europe will be in the limelight

Further optimism surrounding the US Dollar (USD) saw the currency build on the previous week's gains, momentarily rising to three-week highs before giving up some of that advantage towards the conclusion of the week. The further gains in the Greenback came from firmer-than-expected data reports, while expectations for more rate reduction by the Federal Reserve remained unchanged

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week with marked gains well north of the 98.00 mark, helped by the equally strong bounce in US yields across the curve. Pending Home Sales will kickstart the domestic calendar on September 29, seconded by the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. The JOLTs Job Openings takes centre stage on September 30, alongside the FHFA’s House Price Index, the Chicago PMI, the CB Consumer Confidence, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due on October 1, prior to the ADP Employment Change, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. On October 2 will come the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, seconded by Challenger Job Cuts and Factory Orders. The Nonfarm Payrolls will be the centre of attention on October 3, along with the Unemployment Rate, the ISM Services PMI, and the final S&P Global Services PMI.

EUR/USD clocked modest losses for the week, reversing three consecutive advances and ending near the key 1.1700 region. The Consumer Inflation Expectations in the euro area are due on September 29, followed by the Economic Sentiment. Retail Sales in Germany are expected on September 30 alongside the labour market report and the advanced Inflation Rate. On October 1 will come the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Germany and Euroland, seconded by the preliminary Inflation Rate in the bloc. The final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the euro zone are due on October 3, followed by Producer Prices in the euro area.

Despite Friday’s solid performance, GBP/USD could not help falling for the second straight week, although it did manage to rebound from multi-week troughs near 1.3320. The BoE’s Consumer Credit, M4 Money Supply and Net Lending to Individuals are due on September 29 ahead of Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending. The UK Current Account results will be published on September 30 alongside quarterly Business Investment figures and the final Q2 GDP Growth Rate. On October 1 will come the Nationwide Housing Prices and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. The BoE’s Decision Market Panel (DMP) is due on October 2, while the final S&P Global Services PMI will wrap the calendar on October 3.

USD/JPY closed its fifth consecutive week of gains, this time advancing to levels just shy of the key 150.00 hurdle. The final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index are expected on September 29. The BoJ Summary of Opinions will be published on September 30, followed by Retail Sales, flash Industrial Production, Housing Starts and Construction Orders. The Tankan survey is due on October 1, followed by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Foreign Bond Investment figures and the Consumer Confidence gauge will be in the limelight on October 2. The Unemployment Rate and the final S&P Global Services PMI will close the docket on October 3.

AUD/USD added to the previous weekly decline and revisited its 100-week SMA in the low 0.6500s, just to bounce a tad afterwards. Building Permits, Housing Credit, and Private House Approvals are due on September 30. On October 1 will come the Ai Group Industry Index, seconded by Commodity Prices, and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. The Balance of Trade results are expected on October 2, along with Household Spending readings and the RBA’s Financial Stability Report (FSR). The final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on October 3.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Hammack, Williams, Musalem, and Waller are all due to speak on September 29, alongside the BoJ’s Noguchi and the ECB’s Cipollone, Kazaks, Muller, Lane, Machado, and Schnabel. Of note, as well, will be the speech by UK Chancellor Reeves.
• The Fed’s Bostic, Jefferson and Goolsbee speak on September 30, along with the ECB’s Machado, Cipollone, Lagarde and Elderson. In addition, the BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden, Mann and Breeden are due to speak.
• The Fed’s Logan speaks on October 1, seconded by the ECB’s Elderson and De Guindos.
• The Fed’s Logan will speak on October 2, followed by the ECB’s Montagner and De Guindos and the BoJ’s Uchida.
• The Fed’s Williams and Jefferson speak on October 3, alongside the ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel, the BoE’s Bailey, and the BoJ’s Ueda.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The RBA meets on September 30 (3.60% act. vs. 3.60% exp.).