Forecasting the upcoming week: US NFP and the ECB’s Forum might ignite volatility

There was no respite from the downside pressure around the US Dollar (USD) this week. Alleviating geopolitical concerns lent extra wings to the risk-associated universe, aided by fresh highs in US equities, while the perception that a dovish candidate will most likely succeed Chair Powell also added to the Greenback’s decline to multi-year troughs.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rapidly eroded the previous week’s gains and deepened further into the bearish territory, reaching new multi-year lows around the 97.00 neighbourhood. The Chicago PMI is due on June 30 alongside the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI comes on July 1, followed by the always relevant ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs Job Openings, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the Dallas Fed Services Index, Construction Spending figures and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications will be released on July 2, seconded by Challenger Job Cuts, the ADP Employment Change report, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. On July 3, the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls takes centre stage, followed by the Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, the final S&P Global Services PMI, Balance of Trade results, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, and the ISM Services PMI. US Markets will be closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday.

EUR/USD concluded the first half of the year with strong gains north of the 1.1700 barrier, having advanced in every month since the start of 2025. Germany’s Retail Sales and the preliminary Inflation Rate are expected on June 30 while the ECB will begin its Forum on Central Banking in Sintra (Portugal). The German labour market report will be in the spotlight on July 1, followed by the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI in both Germany and the Euroland, the advanced Inflation Rate in the euro bloc and the ECB Forum on Central Banking. The Unemployment Rate in the euro area will be released on July 2, followed by the ECB Forum on Central Banking. On July 3 will come the final HCOB Services PMI in both Germany and the eurozone, followed by the ECB’s Accounts. Germany’s Factory Orders and the HCOB Construction PMI are due on July 4, along with EMU’s Producer Prices and the HCOB Construction PMI.

A humble drop on Friday did not prevent GBP/USD from closing the week on an upbeat note, surpassing the 1.3700 hurdle to hit highs not seen since October 2021. The final Q1 GDP Growth Rate is due on June 30, seconded by the Q1 Current Account results and Business Investment, Mortgage Approvals, the BoE’s Consumer Credit and M4 Money Supply figures. The Nationwide Housing Prices are expected on July 2, prior to the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. The BoE’s DMP survey comes on July 3 alongside the final S&P Global Services PMI. The S&P Global Construction PMI will be the only data release on the UK calendar on July 4.

The Japanese Yen remained bid throughout the week, sparking a weekly decline in USD/JPY to as low as the 143.70 zone. The preliminary Industrial Production readings are due on June 30, seconded by Housing Starts and Construction Orders. The important Tankan survey will be published on July 1 along with the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI and the Consumer Confidence gauge. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will come on July 3 ahead of the final Jibun Bank Services PMI. Household Spending figures will close the weekly docket on July 4. 

AUD/USD remained en route to close its fourth consecutive month of gains, managing to consolidate the breach above the 0.6500 level. The Private Sector Credit figures are expected on June 30, followed by Housing Credit and the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge. Commodity Prices and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are due on July 1, while the Ai Group survey, preliminary Private House Approvals data, Building Permits and Retail Sales will all be out on July 2. On July 3, the final S&P Global Services PMI will be in the spotlight, seconded by Balance of Trade results.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee will speak on June 30, alongside the ECB’s Lagarde.
• The Fed’s Powell is due to speak on July 1, followed by the BoJ’s Ueda, the BoE’s Bailey, and the ECB’s Lagarde.
• The ECB’s Lagarde speaks on July 2.
• The BoE’s Taylor will speak on July 3, seconded by the Fed’s Bostic.
• The BoE’s Bailey speaks on July 5.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The National Bank of Poland (NBP) meets on July 2 (act. 5.25% vs. 5.25% exp.)