Forecasting the upcoming week: The FOMC Minutes and the RBA meeting will be in the spotlight

Another disappointing weekly performance for the Greenback pushed the currency to levels last seen in early December 2024, driven by equally discouraging domestic data and a continued lack of clarity on tariffs—despite further reassurances from the Federal Reserve about its cautious monetary policy stance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) sank well south of the 107.00 support amid a further loss of momentum in US yields across the board, in combination with poor prints from the local calendar and a continued absence of fresh catalysts from the tariff-planet. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Market Index and TIC Flows are expected on February 18. On February 19, the weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications are due, seconded by Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the FOMC Minutes. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims wil be released on February 20 along with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on February 21, seconded by Existing Home Sales, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD clinched its fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday, surpassing the 1.0500 barrier and ending the week with marked gains after two declines in a row. The EMU’s Balance of Trade results are due on February 17, whilethe Economic Sentiment tracked by ZEW will be published on February 18 for the euro area and Germany. The Current Account figures in the EMU are due on February 19. Producer Prices in Germany, Construction Output and the flash Consumer Confidence in the euro area come on February 20. The advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the Euroland will be released on February 21.

GBP/USD climbed to levels above the 1.2600 hurdle for the first time since early December, adding to the optimism seen in the latter part of the week and ending its second straight week of gains. The UK labour market report takes centre stage on February 18, seceonded by the Inlation Rate on February 19. The CBI Industrial Trends Orders is due on February 20. Closing the week, the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due, seconded by the GfK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, and Public Sector Net Borrowing.

USD/JPY retreatead for the second consecutive day on Friday, although it managed well to finally reverse four consecutive retracements on the weekly chart. The preliminary Q4 GDP Growth Rate comes on February 17, seconded by Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Tertiary Industry Index. On February 19 will be released the Balance of Trade results and Machinery Orders, while Foreign Bond Investment figures are due on February 20, prior to the Inflation Rate, the Reuters Tankan Index, and advanced Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs, all expected on February 21.

AUD/USD finally left behind the key 0.6300 hurdle on quite a convincing fashion, hitting new two-month peaks on the back of the intense downside impulse in the US Dollar and the marked improvement in the risk-associated universe. The RBA is expected to cut its interest rate on February 18. The Westpac Leading Index, and the quarterly Wage Price Index are due on February 19. The Australian labour market report will take centre stage on February 20, seconded by te preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The Fed’s Harker and Bowman will speak on February 17.
• The Fed’s Daly and Barr, the BoE’s Bailey, and the BoJ’s Takada will all speak on February 18.
• The Fed’s Jefferson is due to speak on February 19.
• The Fed’s Musalem, Kugler, Barr, and Goolsbee are due to speak on February 20, along with the RBA’s Bullock.
• The BoC’s Macklem, the ECB’s Lane and the Fed’s Jefferson will speak on February 21.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• The RBA will meet on February 18.
• The RBNZ meets on February 19.
• The PboC and the CBRT will decide on rates on February 20.